Quebec election likely won’t put Churchill Falls deal in jeopardy, experts say

Leading up to the announcement of a new Churchill Falls agreement, questions swirled about what would happen if Quebec elects new leadership in the fall. But according to one political expert, Ottawa’s influence will make the deal much harder to break. 

“This is a massive, massive investment in renewable energy,” said Dalhousie University political science professor Lori Turnbull.

“The fact that the federal government is at the table as investors, as players, not just as brokers, but as people who have put their own money on the table…means that this isn’t just between Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec. ” 

Currently, the Parti Québécois (PQ) is leading in opinion polls. The party also has previously spoken out against the Churchill Falls agreement, but now that the agreement is out, it appears the tables might have turned.

At Monday’s announcement, reporters questioned Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette on whether this agreement will last if the PQ wins the election, and she said she knows the party is interested in “tearing up” the agreement.

But, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon responded on X that Frechette’s comment was “simply a falsehood” and accused her of rushing a deal for electoral reasons.

Plamadon went on to say that if the agreement is beneficial for Quebec, the PQ would be interested in maintaining it. 

Turnbull said even if the PQ wanted to tear up the agreement, the federal government would likely prevent that from happening. 

“The idea that somehow this is really in political jeopardy, I don’t believe that. And I don’t think that threat should be overstated. It would be different if the feds didn’t care, but clearly they do,” she said. 

‘Impossible to get a better deal’

La Presse journalist Joël-Denis Bellavance, who covers Churchill Falls, said many experts agree that the agreement is in the best interest of Quebec. 

“This is a win-win deal for everyone, including Quebec. It’s impossible to get a better deal than this one that is on the table,” he said. 

He also said there is an awareness in Quebec that this is a “must-sign deal.” 

“Churchill Falls represent about 15 per cent of the overall production of electricity of Quebec. So it’s a major piece of the puzzle that cannot be pushed aside without huge consequences,” he said. 

Bellavance also said the deal supports Prime Minister Mark Carney’s commitment to make Canada an energy superpower. And he said, the possibility of more U.S. tariffs hitting the country on Wednesday, make this massive energy deal all the more important. 

“He knows very well that Quebec and Newfoundland can provide good, clean energy to some of the states in the United States. So that can be part of the negotiation discussions with President Trump,” he said. 

But, he said, the federal government’s involvement probably wouldn’t have an influence on the next Quebec government because Hydro-Québec will have the final word. 

“[Hydro–Québec] will be convincing the Parti Québécois that there’s no way that you can have a better deal than what’s on the table, otherwise you run the risk of having to build dams in Quebec, that will probably cost triple,” he said. 

“I would argue that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the Parti Québécois will have no choice but to accept what has been signed.”