The governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) surpasses the oppositionist Fernando Haddad (PT) in all first and second round scenarios tested for the election to the Government of São Pauloaccording to new Genial/Quaest research released this Wednesday (29).
The current holder of Palácio dos Bandeirantes scores 38% in the first round, against 26% for the former Minister of Finance of Lula (PT). Next, the federal deputy Kim Kataguiri (Mission) and the former mayor of Santo André Paulo Serra (PSDB), both with 5%.
Undecided voters account for 13%, and whites, null votes and declarations of non-voting account for 13%.
The picture is similar in an alternative scenario that does not consider Paulo Serra’s participation. In it, Tarcísio records 40% of intentions, Haddad, 28%, and Kim, 5%. Undecided voters maintain 13%, and whites, invalid votes and non-votes are 14%.
In this configuration, the governor would have more votes than his opponents combined, which would end the dispute in the first round. With Paulo Serra in the race, Tarcísio’s rivals have 36%, tied with him in terms of margin of error.
As the Panel column showed, PT leaders support the candidacy of Kim in the hope that she will capture part of Tarcísio’s votes and make a second round between the current governor and the former Minister of Finance viable.
The national coordinator of MBL has said that he has not yet decided whether he will run for the Government of São Paulo or whether he will seek re-election. THE Sheet he said he will take the decision in Julyin common agreement with the party, which has just been created.
In a possible second round between the two main competitors for the São Paulo government, Tarcísio beats Haddad by 49% to 32%.
The research included 1,650 home and face-to-face interviews with voters in São Paulo from April 23 to 27. The confidence level for the estimates is 95%, and the maximum margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points. The survey is registered under code SP-03583/2026.
Haddad and Tarcísio faced each other in the last election for governor of São Pauloin 2022, when the former minister of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) surpassed the PT member.
Among all the names tested, that of Lula’s former Finance Minister is the most rejected. 58% say they know him and wouldn’t vote for him. The current governor is rejected by 38%, Paulo Serra, by 31%, and Kim, by 19%.
Assessment
The survey indicates a worsening in the assessment of the Tarcísio government in the state. Management is seen as excellent or good by 39%, compared to 45% in the previous survey, from August 2025.
19% classify the government as bad or terrible (previously 15%), and 35% see it as regular (compared to 29% in the last survey).
Senate
The survey also heard from respondents about their voting intentions for senator. Simone Tebet (PSB) leads with 14%, technically tied with Márcio França (PSB), which has 12%.
Guilherme Derrite (PP) and Ricardo Salles (New) have 8% and 6%, respectively, while André do Prado (PL) has 5% and José Aníbal (PSDB), 4%.
In an alternative scenario with Marina Silva (Rede) instead of Márcio França (PSB), the former minister of Environment appears with 12%, also tied with Tebet in the lead, maintaining 14%.
With this configuration, Derrite has 8%, Salles and do Prado, 6% each, and José Aníbal, 4%.
