MOSCOW, April 15. /TASS/. Preparations continue for the next round of Iran-US talks; the Middle East crisis drives Russian oil prices high; and Hezbollah responds negatively to direct dialogue between Lebanon and Israel. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Preparations continue for next round of Iran-US talks
The second round of Iran-US talks may take place in the near future, Vedomosti writes, citing Western media outlets.
The only real goal Iran has in negotiations with the United States is to find the shortest possible way out of the crisis, said Galina Tsaregorodtseva, head of the Department for Foreign Policy Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies. Other issues may be brought back to the agenda only after the parties reach a genuine ceasefire agreement. However, the situation is unlikely to be resolved at the current stage, the political scientist pointed out. “First, the Islamic Republic has so far no plans to back down in hopes of obtaining some official guarantees. Second, Israel will continue active efforts to drag the US into the conflict. Third, the United States is not ready to sign any documents formalizing its promises or guarantees,” she explained.
Iran seeks a comprehensive solution to the crisis, which could minimize the risk of another attack on the country in the foreseeable future, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, noted. In his view, Tehran is ready to make some concessions at this point, particularly in terms of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as long as Washington creates conditions for meaningful talks. Besides, Iran could also make an agreement on the level of uranium enrichment it would find acceptable. “Although Iran has run low on military and technical resources, it is still ready to continue military operations, especially amid increasing oil prices, which are raising pressure on the Trump administration,” the Middle East expert emphasized.
However, chances are low that the second round of talks will be successful. Both parties are in fact getting ready for another round of confrontation, military expert Vasily Dandykin told Izvestia. “What we formally call a ceasefire is actually just an operational pause in the conflict that continues to smolder and risks escalating into a hot war at any moment,” he concluded.
Media: Middle East crisis pushes Russian oil prices high
The war in the Persian Gulf and a decline in oil output in Middle Eastern countries have increased demand for Russian crude and pushed its price higher. Russia’s oil and gas revenues could reach one trillion rubles ($13 billion) in April, the highest level since mid-2024, experts interviewed by Izvestia estimate.
“China, India and Turkey have recently been our main customers. In fact, most of the supplies are divided between the first two countries. Their competition for deliveries is driving up Russian oil prices,” said Yekaterina Kosareva, managing partner at the BMT Consult company.
Oil prices have been very sensitive to the situation around Iran. The announcement of a ceasefire led to a drop in prices, but US President Donald Trump’s statement about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused another increase, Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out. “Nothing is likely to change in the coming weeks. Prices will move in accordance with the level of tensions in the region, and it is currently hard to predict how the situation will unfold. No one can say if the second round of Iran-US talks will be successful or another round of escalation will begin. In the first case, oil prices will fall below $100 per barrel, but hardly below $90. The risk premium will remain at least until the end of the year and it is highly likely to be extended into the next year,” Andrianov elaborated.
Andrey Polishchuk, senior oil and gas industry analyst at Eiler, told Kommersant that the current reliability of Russian supplies was expected to boost long-term demand. Albert Koroyev of BCS expects that demand for Russian oil will remain high until the Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping.
Lebanon and Israel have held direct talks for the first time in decades, sparking a sharp reaction in the former country. Experts interviewed by Izvestia doubt that the current negotiations can lead to any political decisions.
Hezbollah has accused the Lebanese leadership of violating the country’s constitution by holding direct talks with Israel. Mahmoud Komati, deputy head of the movement’s political council, told the newspaper that such communication contradicted the existing laws, which prohibit any interaction with the Jewish state. Hezbollah strongly opposes the idea of disarmament; the movement’s official told Izvestia that the issue was a purely internal affair for Lebanon and could not be discussed with external players.
Lebanese University Professor Jamal Wakim notes that the current talks between Lebanon and Israel are taking place under US pressure and involve foreign powers that oppose Hezbollah, which is why they are unlikely to yield meaningful political results. According to the expert, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from occupied areas, an end to strikes and guarantees against new attacks should remain a key red line for Lebanon. Wakim stressed that real talks regarding Lebanon were not taking place at the bilateral level but as part of dialogue between the US and Iran, and it is these negotiations that the situation in Lebanon depends on.
Israeli experts are also skeptical. According to Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of Israel’s Channel 9 website, the fact that the talks involve relatively low-level delegations makes it clear that the parties are not seriously betting on this mechanism, although the level of communication can be increased if necessary, with the two countries dispatching more influential figures. Yanushevsky points out that the Hezbollah factor remains a key issue as the movement retains independence and refuses to disarm, acting without full control by the Lebanese government.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may visit China in the second half of May, Vedomosti reported, citing sources. US leader Donald Trump also plans to make a trip to the country in the near future. A diplomatic source told the newspaper, however, that the two visits were not related.
While Putin is sure to travel to China, it seems that Trump is unlikely to make it to Beijing, said Alexander Lomanov, head of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. China’s frustration is growing, particularly due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, this time by the United States, which could affect the passage of Chinese tankers, the expert notes.
It does look like Trump’s China visit is not going to happen, Yana Leksyutina, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Modern Asia, agrees. However, as for Putin’s trip, it is coming right on time regardless of the US president’s plans, simply because of the Russian-Chinese tradition of regular visits by the two countries’ leaders. Given the current developments in the Middle East, which are strongly affecting energy and financial markets and supply chains, it is becoming increasingly important for Moscow and Beijing to coordinate their actions, Leksyutina says. In fact, a systemic crisis is growing both in the sector of transport and logistics and the field of security, with the United States launching military operations not only without permission from the UN Security Council but also without consultations with its allies (with Israel being the only exception).
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is causing concern in Beijing, Leksyutina stressed. In this regard, projects such as the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline connecting Russia and China can get an extra boost, the expert said.
There are no disagreements between Russia and China in the Middle East at the moment, Lomanov observed. Besides, the role of major powers will grow even more at the next stages of the process to resolve the Iran issue because Tehran’s trust in the US is gone, the expert stressed. This is why China and Russia can in theory act as the guarantors of an agreement.
Brussels plans to approve another package of sanctions on Russia and the next tranche of aid for Ukraine in May. Sources say that the issue is expected to be discussed in the middle of the month, after new Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar takes office. Experts believe he will agree to authorize a loan to Ukraine and the 20th package of sanctions against Moscow in exchange for energy exemptions and the release of funding, Izvestia notes.
The statements Magyar has made so far regarding funds for Ukraine sound contradictory and evasive. On the one hand, the politician notes that Hungary has no plans to fund the Kiev regime, but on the other, he says he does not want to prevent the EU from providing a loan to Ukraine, Mikhail Vedernikov, leading researcher with the Department of Central and Eastern European Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, pointed out.
“Magyar may be expected to vote in favor of the loan at the next EU summit, but on the condition that Budapest will not fund this instrument aimed at supporting Kiev,” the expert explained.
“Given domestic developments in Hungary, chances are high that the package of sanctions will be adopted in May. However, the key point is that some contradictions could emerge at the EU level,” Yegor Sergeyev, senior researcher with the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, noted.
Budapest has always agreed to approve restrictions on Russia, only trying to bargain for certain exemptions, particularly regarding the Paks 2 Nuclear Power Plant. Magyar intends to stop using the veto right to blackmail Brussels but he has made it clear that he will insist on exemptions for Hungary when it comes to the areas that are crucial for the country, particularly amid an energy crisis sparked by the conflict in the Middle East.
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