BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Competition
between Europe and Asia for shipments of liquefied natural gas
(LNG) will intensify during the coldest periods of the coming
winter.
This was stated in the Quarterly Gas Market Review by the Oxford
Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).
The report notes that total natural gas supply in Europe in the
third quarter of 2026 amounted to 62.2 billion cubic meters, which
is 0.5% less than the figure for the same period last year.
According to the report, total gas supply in Europe in the third
quarter of 2025 was 62.5 billion cubic meters, and in the third
quarter of 2024, it was 64.2 billion cubic meters: “Thus, on a
year-over-year basis, the figure decreased by 0.3 billion cubic
meters, and compared to the third quarter of 2024, by 2 billion
cubic meters, or 3.1%.
The OIES notes that on no single day of the third quarter of
2026 did daily gas supply in Europe exceed the average level for
2017–2024: “A noticeable increase in the figure was observed in the
second half of June, while a significant decline was recorded at
the end of September.”
“The main factors affecting gas supply trends in the reporting
quarter were a 1.6 billion cubic meter reduction in gas injections
into storage facilities and a 2.1 billion cubic meter decrease in
re-exports to Ukraine and Morocco. These changes largely offset the
4.2 billion cubic meter decline in LNG deliveries to the gas
transmission system.
Going forward, the gas market will continue to face risks
related to reduced LNG supplies from the Middle East, the EU’s ban
on Russian LNG imports taking effect on January 1, 2027, and
competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments during the
coldest periods of winter.
“In addition, the dynamics of gas withdrawals from European
storage facilities during the winter will remain an important
factor for the market. This will influence short-term price
fluctuations and will allow for an assessment of Europe’s need for
additional LNG supplies to replenish stocks in the summer of 2027,”
the institute reports.
