The Treasury Department on Wednesday calmed a jittery bond market by doubling the amount of its own debt it is permitted to buy back from investors. The move helped push bond prices up and yields down.
The action came one day after the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond reached a nearly two-decade high, a troubling signal that was driven by mounting concerns over rising deficits, rampant borrowing by artificial intelligence companies and stubborn inflation.
The Treasury market is the largest bond market in the world, and yields on the government’s debt are used across the world as a benchmark for things like business loans and mortgages. Higher Treasury yields typically translate into higher interest rates throughout the economy, reducing affordability for households at a time when many are already struggling to make ends meet.
Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has pointed to Treasury yields as a barometer of his success in improving affordability, saying that interest rates play a major role in “whether a young family can afford a home, a college student can buy a car, or an entrepreneur can get a small business loan.”
The Treasury’s move on Wednesday allows it to increase the scale at which it buys back its own debt, to $4 billion per weekly operation from $2 billion. By injecting additional demand into the bond market, prices tend to rise, which sends yields falling.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond, which this week rose to its highest level since 2007, fell roughly 0.1 percentage points on Wednesday, to 5.2 percent, its largest daily decline in months. The 10-year Treasury yield, which has a major influence over mortgage rates, also fell sharply, to 4.65 percent. Stocks rose, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.2 percent.
While markets welcomed the Trump administration’s intervention, analysts noted that Wednesday’s buyback accounted for a small amount of the almost $30 trillion Treasuries market, suggesting that the move may do little to stem further increases in yields. The market consistently trades more than $1 trillion per day, according to data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade group.
“To me, this feels more like a communication strategy than something that will meaningfully stem the rise in long-dated yields,” said Subadra Rajappa, an interest rate strategist at the French bank Société Générale, adding that the increase is not significant enough to cause a lasting move lower in yields.
“It’s hard to get excited about a $2 billion increase in buybacks,” she said, noting that it “feels a little ‘Austin Powers,’” referring to the pittance of a ransom that the once-cryogenically frozen antagonist in the movie demands as part of a plot, not taking into account inflation in the decades while he was asleep.
The Treasury Department’s announcement is the latest in a series of efforts to try to limit the rise of long-term government bond yields.
The government has moved most of its new borrowing needs into short-term bills that mature in less than one year. The Treasury Department also recently stepped in to support the Japanese yen, which analysts suggested was a maneuver to avoid Japanese officials selling a chunk of the country’s large stockpile of U.S. government bonds to support its currency.
The Treasury auctions debt of different maturities at regular intervals. Last week, for example, it sold $42 billion of 10-year notes and $25 billion of 30-year bonds.
In another reassuring sign on Wednesday, the Treasury sold $16 billion of 20-year bonds at a coupon — which is effectively an interest rate — of 5.2 percent. Investor orders for the bonds exceeded twice what was available, which has been typical at recent 20-year auctions.
Investors like to own the most recently issued debt, known as “on-the-run” Treasuries. These are more heavily traded, making it easier to buy and sell in large amounts. Once a Treasury is no longer on-the-run, it becomes “off-the-run,” trading less frequently and typically with a slightly lower price — and higher yield — than more recently issued equivalents.
Once a week, the Treasury offers to repurchase some of its old debt, keeping demand strong for new Treasuries sold in auctions, and keeping overall yields slightly lower. The announcement on Wednesday will increase the size of these buyback operations, financed by the Treasury issuing more short-term debt instead.
Analysts also said that as important as the announcement itself is what it signaled to the market, showing the Treasury Department is aware of the recent rise in yields.
“Long-term rates are the focus,” said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities, an investment bank. “That is clearly the case.”
The change to the size of buybacks will be effective next month, through to November, when the Treasury Department is expected to next update the market on its borrowing plans.
