It has become more expensive to fly since the war in Iran began. But by how much?
Data from the flight search engine Skiplagged shows ticket prices for popular domestic routes rose 35 percent this summer compared with last year, reversing three years of price declines. Fares for popular international routes are up by about 15 percent.
Routes booked in May for June and early July are often some of the most expensive fares of the year, behind only those routes during the holiday season. Domestic passenger prices this summer are the highest they’ve been since 2022.
At first blush, the smaller increase in international fares may be surprising: Flights abroad are generally longer and require more jet fuel, which has nearly doubled in price since the start of the war.
According to airline analysts, prices for international routes may have spiked less because of lower demand for travel to the U.S. and because it’s harder for airlines to make route changes and cut flights. By contrast, airlines can more easily pull back capacity on domestic flights when there’s weak demand, increasing scarcity and leaving prices high.
How far your travel budget is stretched this summer depends on where you’re going. In the sample of data provided by Skiplagged, more than half of all domestic flights had at least a 25 percent increase.
Forecasts had warned of widespread jet fuel shortages in Europe and significant flight cancellations and price hikes. “For the most part a lot of that hasn’t come to fruition,” said Christopher Anderson, a Cornell Business School professor who studies airline pricing. “The airlines have done a good job changing routes, restricting some of that capacity.”
Airlines have also been covering their jet fuel expenses by increasingly passing costs onto customers with higher airfares and bag fees.
It was a different picture when oil prices surged in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, with price increases more closely tracking jet fuel costs.
Analysts say prices rose more in 2022 because there was a lot of pent-up demand and personal savings from the pandemic, leading many to splurge on “revenge travel.”
It has also been hard for airlines to know when the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and how long high jet fuel prices would last.
“There is such a big lag between when an airline incurs the cost of fuel versus when it sells seats,” Mr. Anderson said.
But this year so far, customers are still flying. Last month, the Southwest Airlines C.E.O., Bob Jordan, said the company had pushed seven fare increases since February but had seen “no drop-off in demand.”
Some of that may be thanks to the powerful draw of summer travel, said Conor Cunningham, an airlines and travel analyst at the investment firm Melius Research.
“Summer tends to find a way,” he said, adding that those who have the money to travel are still booking flights. Although most flight cost indexes track economy class prices, Mr. Cunningham and others have noted prices for premium seats have grown even faster.
Aktarer Zaman, Skiplagged’s founder, said his site gets the most visitors when prices are high. People are more likely to set price alerts during times of elevated prices and wait to book until they receive an alert for a price drop, he added.
These alerts may not arrive soon.
With an Iran truce in place, fuel prices are down about 35 percent compared with April’s peak. But they are still higher than they were at the beginning of the year, and whether fares will follow the fuel prices is an open question. Airlines are reluctant to lower prices unless forced to by competition, according to Robert Mann, an industry consultant and a former airline executive. The demise of the budget airline Spirit means that prices may come down even more slowly, he added.
Other analysts noted that airfares have not aligned with overall inflation and that price increases were overdue.
“There’s a legitimate argument that this is now the new standard in pricing,” Mr. Cunningham said. “The question is at what point do people push back.”
