Jamaica’s latest export figures tell a sobering story. During the first five months of 2026, merchandise exports declined by 12.5 per cent to US$674.7 million. This occurred despite a welcome 22.5 per cent rebound in manufacturing exports, which generated US$407.6 million, approximately US$75 million more than in the corresponding period of 2025.
The problem is that gains in manufacturing were overwhelmed by steep declines elsewhere. Mining and quarrying exports fell by 46.4 per cent, wiping roughly US$155 million from export earnings, while agricultural exports declined by 38.2 per cent. Mining alone lost more than twice the additional earnings generated by manufacturing.
Things might have been even worse without the cushion provided by fuel exports, even as exports of crude materials fell by 44.3 per cent. While fuel exports benefited from higher global petroleum prices, they remain heavily dependent on imported inputs.
These figures are more than a temporary setback. They expose the fragility of Jamaica’s export structure and the long-standing weaknesses that continue to limit production and export growth despite improvements in macroeconomic stability.
Part of the decline reflects external shocks. The conflict involving Iran has disrupted energy markets and international shipping routes, contributing to higher oil and diesel prices as well as rising freight and insurance costs. For Jamaican manufacturers already burdened by high energy and logistics expenses, these developments further erode competitiveness.
Unpredictable United States tariff policies have added another layer of uncertainty. The US remains Jamaica’s largest merchandise export market, and frequent changes in tariffs and trade arrangements make it more difficult for exporters to price goods, negotiate contracts and plan investments. Smaller firms are particularly vulnerable because they often lack the financial reserves and market diversification needed to absorb sudden policy shifts.
At home, Hurricane Melissa severely damaged farms, roads and productive assets. Mining operations were disrupted, and the recovery of bauxite and alumina production has been gradual. Agricultural exports, including yam and coffee, also suffered. Coffee exporters estimated that nearly 40 per cent of the mature crop for the 2025-26 season was destroyed. Climate vulnerability must therefore be treated as a core export-competitiveness issue rather than merely an agricultural concern.
low-productivity cycle
Yet hurricanes, wars and tariffs do not explain everything. Jamaica remains trapped in a low-productivity cycle. Many firms still operate with ageing equipment, limited technology, weak management systems and insufficient scale. Output per worker remains low relative to labour, energy, transport and financing costs, reducing cost competitiveness. Jamaican products may be distinctive and high quality, but they often reach overseas markets at prices that limit growth.
Businesses also report inadequate access to affordable financing, persistent skills mismatches, high shipping costs, limited cold-storage capacity, and difficulties meeting international health, safety, packaging and certification standards. These challenges weigh most heavily on micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which possess much of Jamaica’s export potential but often lack the resources required to enter and remain in international markets.
There has been progress. Jamaica’s trade-facilitation and paperless-trade compliance rating rose from about 50 per cent in 2017 to nearly 80 per cent in 2023. The Jamaica Single Window for Trade (JSWIFT), together with ASYCUDA, has reduced paperwork, facilitated electronic payments and improved coordination among border agencies.
However, digitising an inefficient export ecosystem is not enough. An exporter may submit documents online but still struggle with expensive electricity, poor rural roads, inadequate refrigerated storage, high interest rates and the cost of obtaining international certification.
TRANSFORMATIVE PROGRAMME
Turning Jamaica’s export ship around will require a genuine public-private partnership focused on the entire competitiveness chain. Government, exporters, financial institutions, universities, logistics providers and business-support organisations must collaborate within a measurable national export-transformation programme.
First, Jamaica needs bipartisan agreement on a programme of deep industrial transformation that can survive electoral cycles. Such a programme should identify industries in which Jamaica can build scale, move into higher-value production and compete regionally and internationally.
Second, energy costs must be reduced through greater competition, expanded investment in renewable energy and improved efficiency. Exporters cannot succeed if electricity and transportation expenses consistently erode productivity gains.
Third, support for MSMEs must be expanded. Programmes such as Export Max should reach more firms and provide sustained assistance with financing, productivity improvement, technology adoption, packaging, certification and market development rather than limited exposure at trade shows.
Fourth, Jamaica must develop a value-added strategy for its ports. The country’s geographic location should support consolidation, processing, packaging, cold-chain services, regional distribution and light manufacturing instead of functioning primarily as a transit point for goods produced elsewhere.
Finally, institutional modernisation must continue. A modern Jamaica Customs Act, stronger coordination among border agencies, and further reductions in the cost and processing time of export procedures are essential.
Jamaica’s manufacturing rebound demonstrates that export growth is possible. However, isolated sectoral gains will not transform the economy. Sustained export expansion will require a comprehensive strategy that strengthens productivity, lowers costs, builds resilience and creates an environment in which Jamaican businesses can compete successfully in global markets.
