Chronic homelessness in Winnipeg greatly overestimated due to faulty data, memo says

Data errors connected to a federal system used by End Homelessness Winnipeg have led to a significant overestimation of the number of people experiencing homelessness in the city, an internal organizational memo obtained by CBC News says.

Revised data shows 436 people were experiencing chronic homelessness at the end of March, instead of about 4,400, as the organization previously reported, the two-page document says.

The document, dated Aug. 12, also suggests 2,231 people were accessing homelessness services at the time, rather than about 8,200, the memo states.

The figures come from a federal database called the Homeless Individuals and Families Information System — also known as HIFIS — used by End Homelessness Winnipeg and other organizations across Canada, which were also affected by the issue.

The system allows them “to access, collect and share local real-time homelessness data to ensure individuals and families accessing services are prioritized and referred to appropriate services at the correct time,” the federal government’s website says.

According to the August document, the inflated numbers stem from what End Homelessness Winnipeg suggested was a misunderstanding in how inactive cases ought to be handled in the system.

The organization’s board was told in August that a staff member had noticed a problem with the case count during a routine review in early July.

They found a “significant number of participant files” were still open, even though the people in question hadn’t accessed services for “extended periods.”

“Further investigation found that the federal HIFIS data system was not automatically closing inactive cases as [End Homelessness Winnipeg] had understood,” the memo states.

After getting clarification from the federal department of housing, it “confirmed on July 9 that the 90-day inactivity threshold did not automatically close cases.”

Board recommendations

Eight of the board’s directors were present for the organization’s update in August.

End Homelessness Winnipeg’s executive director, Jennifer Moore Rattray, and another staff member, were also there. Rattray is on CBC’s board of directors.

The document says the board discussed what could happen if the revised data was published, including “the risk that incomplete data could be misinterpreted as a reduction in homelessness and negatively affect investment in the sector.”

The board recommended the organization not publish its quarterly data from the federal system at that time, the memo states.

Instead, the board suggested End Homelessness Winnipeg have “high-level” discussions with sector partners “about the limitations of current homelessness data” and ways to improve data collection, the document says.

The board pointed to limitations in the federal system, saying people under 18 aren’t captured in the database. Neither are people experiencing homelessness who do not access services or are getting help from organizations that don’t actively use the system, the memo states.

The board also directed End Homeless Winnipeg to continue improving its data quality practices through audits and training, amid other data-entry concerns, such as staff turnover among front-line organizations.

CBC News asked End Homelessness Winnipeg for an interview. Most of its board members could not be reached by publication.

The organization’s acting communications manager, Kiara Goring, replied in an email that the organization began working with the federal housing ministry to find solutions after the data issues were flagged.

“Implementation of these corrective tools is ongoing,” she said.

“We have met with the sector, and at their request begun to explore other data systems that might be complementary to [the federal system] and more user-friendly for sector partners who do front-line work.”

Goring says End Homelessness Winnipeg’s last biennial point-in-time census in 2024 is the most reliable data it has.

That street census, which relies on volunteers visiting encampments and other places, estimated at least 2,469 people in Winnipeg were experiencing homelessness that year.

In a news release early Tuesday evening, the organization says it’s preparing for the next point-in-time count in November, which will collect numbers through emergency shelters and outreach teams.

“This important community-wide initiative helps us better understand the experiences of people experiencing homelessness and identify the supports and resources needed to help people find safe, stable housing,” the release says.

It mentions that “administrative data quality issues” had affected some information captured in the federal data system, pointing to “an unintended consequence of an updated business rule,” but the release did not get into specifics.