Marine Le Pen or Edouard Philippe. If there are no big surprises in the nine months left for the French presidential electionsonly these two leaders have real options to reach theElysium and become the new Coprince of Andorra in replacing Emmanuel Macron. They are two names that at the same time represent two radically different ideas regarding the Andorran institutional system: that of continuing with the current stability embodied in Philippeand that of opening the door to the instability that would mean a victory of Le Pen.
“Only Philippe can fight the arrival of Le Pen in the presidency. The polls are robust”
The latest polls drawn up after the announcement of the candidacy of Le Pen predict a clear victory for the far-right candidate in the first round, with around 35% of the voteswhile in the second he could have more difficulties depending on the candidate he faces. If the final vote is the candidate of the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchonthe arrival at theElysium of the National Regroupment it would be practically guaranteed. He would also do quite well if his opponent is the Macronist Gabriel Attal, although the chances of this former prime minister are very small. Instead, who was also the Macron’s number 2, Édouard Philippeseems at this time the best positioned to defeat Le Pen and be the new Coprince of Andorra. “The polls are very robust. Only Philipand can combat the arrival of Le Pen to the presidency”, predicts the political scientist of theAR+I Yvan Lara.
one survey ofOpinion Way estimates that the Prime Minister between the years 2017 and 2020 would fall the leader of Regroupment in the second round with one 53% of the votes. Instead, polls like Ifop point to a victory of Le Pen in all scenarios and another from Harris Interactive predicts a near-perfect draw. In any case, it does seem clear that the battle to reach theElysium and be Coprincipe of Andorra will be very quarrelsome if the former ally ofEmmanuel Macronfrom the Horizons match, goes to the second round. In this sense, it remains to be seen whether the two candidates from the ideological orbit of the current president of the republic reach some kind of pact to avoid a segregation of their space that would give wings to Mélenchon to become the second option with more votes and in practice would certify the triumph of thefar right.
Before the sentence that gives free way to Le Pen, who had been postulated in his place was number 2, Jordan Bardella. Lara emphasizes that it is a very different profile, since “he has been able to relate well with the elites”. Although the polls predict the same electoral strength in the two, the political scientist of theAR+I maintains that Le Pen would have more difficulties to “move in the presidency”, while “Bardella it has connections that allow it to position itself vis-à-vis key economic actors”. From this same reading, Lara warns that the “anti-elites” discourse of the leader of RN is the most dangerous element for the stability of the co-principality. “He doesn’t marry well, I don’t think it’s a desirable situation for Andorra“, he receives.
