Allies of the presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) assess that the entry of Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) in the race for Palácio do Planalto will guarantee a second round in the election. This perspective, say people close to the senator from Rio de Janeiro, is positive for the opposition campaign.
The assessment of those around Flávio is that the so-called third way, an option between Bolsonarism and PTism, is doomed to defeat in a polarized environment. At the same time, Caiado’s candidacy could attract a portion of the electorate that does not feel comfortable voting for the former president’s son. Jair Bolsonaro (PL) or the president Lula (PT).
This way, if confirmed in the dispute, Caiado will prevent Flávio or Lula from exceeding 50% of valid votes in the first stage of the dispute. Without a name on the third copy, those dissatisfied could vote blank or cancel their vote, which would facilitate a victory in the first round.
Flávio’s campaign claims that forcing a second round is a good scenario, as, with more campaign time, the senator could attract more votes from voters. dissatisfied with the government.
Another positive factor highlighted by Flávio’s campaign is that Caiado has a more combative profile than the governors of Paraná, Ratinho Junior, and Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite. They were seen in PSD as options for right-wing presidential candidates, but more moderate than the Goiás candidate.
With this, the assessment is that Caiado can function as a kind of auxiliary line of Bolsonarism. In the scenario expected by PL allies, the Goiás native would put up a tougher fight against Lula, including in the debates, while the senator would try to portray a more moderate image, aiming to attract voters from the center.
The Lula government’s expectations are precisely the opposite. PT members hope that Caiado, if he wishes to leave the presidential race with more political capital, will go after the electorate that is now consolidated in Flavio Bolsonaro. From this perspective, they are competing for the same electorate and, therefore, will be on a collision course.
When announcing his pre-candidacy, the former governor of Goiás made a gesture to the Bolsonarista electorate and said he would amnesty the former president. Bolsonaro is serving a sentence of 27 years and three months in prison after be condemned by the STF (Supreme Federal Court) for attempted coup d’état, on charges of lead a plot to stay in power.
“My first act will be exactly broad, general and unrestricted amnesty, replicating what Juscelino Kubitschek knew how to do with great mastery for all those who really rebelled in a real coup attempt by the Air Force,” he said.
Caiado avoided attacking Flávio, but highlighted that his opponent had never held a position in the Executive. “You can’t learn in a chair”, stated the former governor of Goiás.
DATA SHEET
Datafolha research released last week shows that, in the first round, Lula leads voting intentions, with 39%, followed by Flávio, with 35% — which shows a tendency for a technical tie at the limit of the margin of error, which statistically favors whoever is ahead.
Caiado appears with 5%, Romeu Zema (Novo), with 4%, Renan Santos (Missão), with 2%, and Aldo Rebelo (DC) and Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), with 1%. 10% declare voting blank or null, and 4% say they don’t know who to choose.
48% say they do not vote at all for the current president, while 46% reject Bolsonaro’s son outright.
Caiado has a rejection rate of 17%. He is still unknown to 54% of voters.
