To judge the strength of the “agreement of cease fire for two weeks” between USA, Israel and Iranwe must examine the internal situation of the mediator, Pakistan. A nation divided into four: the ruling military, the majority of the opposition that supports its imprisoned leader, the Islamist militias and the nuclear establishment.
These factions tear off their skin to control the Pakistani economy, intervened by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); They are mad dogs killing themselves over a bone without meat.
It is illusory to expect that a disintegrating country, like Pakistan, can bring the United States and Iran to the table to articulate a lasting peace. If Pakistan does not have the internal political and military strength to reunify and pacify its country, nothing can be done between the United States, Iran and Israel; let’s be realistic.
We have three combatants: Israel, Iran and the United States; only Washington suspended the bombing. It is a fictitious peace.
In the “ceasefire”, Israel announces that it will permanently occupy Lebanon, with an internal balance worse than Pakistan. In Lebanon, Hezbollah, the Islamist militia, has more soldiers and weapons than the army. Different Islamic and Christian groups survive in Lebanon, only the territory they share unites them.
Iran clarified that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, its territorial waters, if Israel and the United States do not financially compensate for the damage caused by its attacks. Rather than a “ceasefire,” what we have is a temporarily reassuring headline.
Stock market indices will improve, oil could drop a few cents temporarily and there will be a “breather” before hostilities restart. The only real use that a ceasefire has is for the warring groups to reorganize and rearm to resume attacks.
The resumption of hostilities will be much worse. The clashes in Yemen could block the Red Sea and the Iraqi militiamen, now pro-Iran, could overthrow the pro-Washington government.
The war will continue, the reality is quite cruel, our prices will continue to rise, this false peace will soon collapse.
