Jason Ellis never expected how many times cancer would strike his family.
The 38-year-old Guelph, Ont., resident lost his mother to breast cancer when he was in high school. She first hid her diagnosis to protect him, Ellis recalled, making her death even more of a shock.
Years later, his wife Marilyne was diagnosed with a rare type of sarcoma — a cancer of the connective tissues — after multiple doctors misdiagnosed a mass growing in her leg. By the time it was biopsied, the cancer had spread to the 29-year-old’s lungs, leading to a terminal, Stage 4 prognosis that he said “completely obliterated” the pair’s plans to start a family.
The couple had just bought their first home. In 2022, roughly a year after her diagnosis, Marilyne died in his arms at the age of 30.
“And the table turned to me last July,” Ellis said.
He’d had unrelenting facial and head pain for months. Doctors initially suspected it was an ear infection or tension headache, but the pain eventually became unbearable; Ellis described it like an “electric shock.”
He was diagnosed with Stage 3 nasopharyngeal carcinoma, a rare type of head and neck cancer, and has since finished chemotherapy and radiation treatments.
“I didn’t really know how to tell family and friends just because of my history with cancer,” Ellis told CBC News. “It was almost an I-can’t-believe-it moment of, OK, now it’s my turn.”
Despite advancements in treatment, surveillance and screening programs, cancer continues to touch the lives of thousands of Canadians like Ellis every year.
A new paper published today in the Canadian Medical Association Journal offers fresh modelling showing that cancer cases and deaths will remain at high levels in the year ahead — including “concerning trends” showing a projected rise in multiple types of cancer, including cancers of the head and neck.
“What really stands out is that cancer continues to have a tremendous impact on people all across Canada,” said Jennifer Gillis, a co-author of the study and director of surveillance at the Canadian Cancer Society.
88,000 cancer deaths projected for 2026
The report suggests Canada will face more than 254,000 projected new cancer cases — and close to 88,000 deaths — in 2026 alone.
Some trends, the research team said, weren’t surprising: cancer continues to be the leading cause of death in Canada, and several common types — lung, breast, prostate and colorectal cancers — are projected to make up nearly half of all new cases.
On the positive side, overall age-standardized death rates are projected to keep dropping, reflecting ongoing advancements in treatments that are helping patients live longer, fuller lives.
The advent of immunotherapy, more targeted treatment and a better understanding of how cancers behave and change are all factors making a difference for modern Canadian cancer patients, said Dr. Sebastian Hotte, an oncologist at the Juravinski Cancer Centre in Hamilton who wasn’t part of the CMAJ study.
But, Hotte added, we “still have a long way to go.”
Cervical, head and neck cancers rising despite vaccine
Other projections paint a complex and concerning picture of how cancer trends are shifting, and where Canada may be falling short in battling this disease.
The researchers project there will be increases in the number of cases of cervical cancer, cancers of the head and neck, melanoma, pancreatic cancer and uterine cancer.
Both cervical and head and neck cancers are strongly associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, the study authors say, and both can also be prevented through HPV immunization programs.
Despite widespread use of HPV shots — and hopeful research from other countries such as Australia, Denmark and Rwanda where vaccination efforts may be close to wiping out cervical cancer — Canada isn’t seeing the same level of progress.
“After decades of meaningful declines, incidence rates of cervical cancer have plateaued well above the World Health Organization elimination target (less than four per 100,000 females) and have even increased among younger age groups,” notes the CMAJ paper.
After 20 years of falling cervical cancer rates, a new Canadian Cancer Society report suggests that progress on eliminating the disease has stalled. Advocates say wider access to HPV testing and vaccination could help.
The authors add that “elevating HPV vaccination rates continues to be important for enhancing the effectiveness of screening programs for cervical cancer and preventing other HPV-related cancers.”
Federal data from 2023 shows 76 per cent of Canadian 14-year-olds had received at least one dose of HPV vaccine, while only 67 per cent had received two doses — with slightly higher uptake among females than males, despite both sexes being impacted by HPV-related cancers.
Gillis, from the Canadian Cancer Society, said her organization is calling on all provinces and territories to implement a “once eligible, always eligible” policy to HPV vaccination, so no one has to pay for the shots out of pocket to the tune of hundreds of dollars if they’ve aged out of school-based routine immunizations.
It’s a move that could “really increase participation” in those vaccination programs, she added.
Doctors say Canada is facing a silent health crisis of HPV-related cervical cancer that could be prevented if more people got vaccinated against human papillomavirus, the virus that can cause the disease.
Lung cancer remains top killer
The CMAJ study noted that two of the other rising cancers — pancreatic and uterine — may be linked to the high number of Canadians facing obesity and the impact of “excess body size and related biological mechanisms, including insulin resistance, on cancer development.”
“The death rate for uterine cancer has increased alarmingly,” Gillis said.
One recent Statistics Canada report noted that excess body size is at its highest level yet, with nearly half of all adults “having a waist circumference that elevates their risk for these and several other cancers,” the paper continued.
Meanwhile, the top cancer killer is projected to remain lung cancer, though the face of those bearing the brunt of that disease is changing dramatically.
“On its own, lung cancer is expected to account for [one in five] cancer-related deaths in 2026,” the CMAJ paper notes, totaling more than 19,000 lives lost.
While historically linked to men, lung cancer is now appearing in women more frequently, with more females than males projected to be diagnosed with it this year, the CMAJ study found.
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“A higher proportion of lung cancers among females than males are not explained by tobacco consumption, suggesting that additional exposures — including lifestyle factors, radon and air pollution — may need to be addressed to further reduce incidence of lung cancer,” the authors wrote.
As CBC News previously reported, household exposure to radioactive radon gas within millions of homes may be causing more cases of lung cancer in Canadians, along with an estimated 3,200 deaths each year.
Despite that, radon isn’t included in lung cancer screening criteria, which typically targets individuals with a long-term history of smoking, even as tobacco use across Canada has plummeted.
Health Canada is encouraging provincial screening programs to consider adding radon in their criteria “so that Canadians who are exposed can be screened for lung cancer,” the federal agency told CBC News earlier this year.
Shifting trends in colorectal cancer
Colorectal cancer is expected to remain the second-most common cause of cancer mortality, with more than 9,000 projected deaths in 2025.
The headline-making health threat is now impacting younger Canadians, though researchers say multiple trends are happening at once. Overall, colorectal cancer cases are actually dropping, even though deaths remain stubbornly high and emerging research suggests young adults are being diagnosed more often.
Cases are projected to be 32 per cent lower in males and 29 per cent lower in females compared with the early 2000s, the CMAJ team notes. It’s also a disease that’s now highly treatable when caught early enough.
Toronto-based gastroenterologist Dr. Ian Bookman, who was not involved in the CMAJ paper, attributes the overall drop in cases to the effectiveness of screening interventions such as colonoscopies among older populations.
“These are the results of people … either being diagnosed earlier or having advanced polyps removed, preventing the formation of the cancer in the first place,” he said.
The concurrent rise in younger adults is happening too fast to be explained by genetics, Bookman added. “We believe lifestyle factors such as physical inactivity, obesity, poor diet choices, perhaps including more processed foods, could be contributing,” he said. “On top of that, traditionally, we have never been aggressive at screening this population.”
Currently, nearly all screening programs in Canada are offered to those aged 50 to 74.
Advocacy groups such as the Canadian Cancer Society are now calling on provincial and territorial screening programs to include adults as young as 45. As of March of this year, Prince Edward Island became the first province to lower its cut-off.
The Canadian Cancer Society is pushing provinces and territories to drop the colorectal cancer screening age from 50 to 45. New research shows people born after 1980 are twice as likely to get it compared to older generations – and they’re often diagnosed at more advanced stages.
Lifestyle changes can make a difference
Multiple medical experts agreed there are also ways individuals can try to ward off the threat of cancer.
Bookman said increasing physical activity, reducing obesity and eating a diet with high fibre, more fruits and vegetables and less red meat can all contribute to warding off colorectal cancer.
Avoiding smoking and alcohol can also play a role in preventing various types of cancer, while sunscreen use to mitigate UV exposure can be “really impactful” for avoiding melanoma, Gillis said.
Yet cancer often remains an unavoidable reality: the CMAJ study projects 42 per cent of all Canadians will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives.
Ellis, who lost both his mother and wife to the disease before going through his own cancer treatment last year, said he’s now living with the worry that his cancer will eventually return.
“Gratitude and grief can coexist,” he said. “I’m still struggling with side effects — with potential for recurrence — but also really, truly living my life because I have a chance to. And many people don’t have that chance.”
