The success of Britain’s embattled and deeply unpopular prime minister, Keir Starmer, in fending off demands for an inquiry into whether he misled the House of Commons over Peter Mandelson provides a very temporary breathing space. The internal party pressure for him to resign is almost certain to redouble after Thursday, when thousands of council and regional parliament seats in England, Scotland and Wales are up for grabs.
The face of British politics is changing profoundly. Political scientists describe the likely rout of Labour as heralding the definitive demise of the long-shaky duopoly dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. Instead, a landscape more akin to European politics, in which coalition-building becomes central,is in prospect.
Polls predict that Labour is on course to lose a majority of the 2,558 council seats it is defending in England, probably its worst election in 50 years. Squeezed by rampant insurgent populists, Nigel Farage’s Reform on the right and Zack Polanski’s Greens on the left, Labour appears set to lose its governing role in Wales for the first time in the local assembly’s history. In Scotland it will suffer further losses to the ruling Scottish National Party.
With Sinn Féin likely to reaffirm its standing as the North’s largest party in elections later this month, Westminster seems certain to face awkward, nationalist-led regional assemblies across the union, while a swathe of key councils and mayoralties fall to Reform.
Polls also suggest that Reform, fielding candidates in almost every constituency, will take as many as 1500 seats , from a very low base, while the still-discredited Tories, struggling to build the credibility of leader Kemi Badenoch, are likely to lose 600. Farage’s claim to be the real leader of the opposition and a credible prime minister in waiting will be enormously enhanced. And the Greens, set to pick up some 500 seats, could even take London and are pushing the Liberal Democrats aside as a real alternative on the left.
Starmer will be lucky to keep his job.
