The Victory Parade, originally held to commemorate the Red Army’s victory in World War II, has been a propaganda event for the Putin regime for many years. It is a celebration of Russia’s readiness to attack, a revanchist “We can do it again”, a slogan that has been put into practice in the war against Ukraine since February 2022.
Typically, in the days leading up to the May 9 parade, Kremlin-loyal media outdo each other with details about what military technology will be showcased this year. Last year, armored infantry vehicles, battle tanks, transportable Iskander missiles and vehicles with mounted drones rolled through downtown Moscow.
But this year everything will be different. Rumors that had previously made the rounds on Telegram were confirmed by the Moscow Defense Ministry in midweek: military technology will not be shown this year. The reason: “the current situation”.
In 2026, 81 years after the end of the Second World War, Vladimir Putin can no longer freely celebrate with the ever-dwindling number of World War II veterans and his foreign guests on Moscow’s streets. In times of drone warfare and the increasing number of Ukrainian air strikes in the Russian hinterland, parading has become risky. The accumulation of military technology would be, in a sense, an invitation to Ukraine. In addition, Russia needs its military capabilities in war and not for show purposes.
“Victory” in red letters: National Guardsmen in central Moscow before the planned victory celebration on May 9th. Reuters / Ramil Sitdikov
The fact that the Kremlin has to significantly limit its central propaganda spectacle shows that the consequences of the war launched by Russia are being felt more clearly than before. In the first few years, the state leadership, especially in the capital, tried to keep the war as far away from the residents as possible. But things have changed since spring: the massive disruption to the mobile internet made Muscovites aware that there is a new reality. Mobile internet is expected to be shut down again in the days before the parade and on the day of the celebrations.
As he did last year, Putin proposed a ceasefire on May 9th. Not in direct conversations with Ukraine, but in his most recent phone call with Donald Trump on Wednesday. Trump later said in an interview with reporters that he himself had suggested “a small truce.” Putin’s primary concern is to have a trouble-free holiday. So far, short-term moratoriums – most recently at Easter – have not led to long-term calm on the battlefield.
Russian regions are now also feeling the effects of the war more clearly. This mainly has to do with the increase in Ukrainian air strikes against the Russian energy and oil infrastructure. In addition to export ports in the Baltic Sea, refineries and oil storage facilities are being targeted by Ukrainian drones. On Thursday morning, an oil pumping station that was attacked by Ukrainian drones burned for the second time this week in the Urals, 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an expansion of these “deep strikes”. He spoke on X of “a new phase in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit Russia’s war potential.”
Russian emergency services also battled a major fire in the Black Sea city of Tuapse until Thursday morning. In Tuapse, successive Ukrainian airstrikes (the most recent also occurred this week) caused major fires at the refinery there. Huge columns of black smoke can be seen in videos and photos. Citizens reported a “rain of oil”: streets and houses were covered in a greasy, black layer, and there was an acrid smell in the air. Several dozen people had to be evacuated. Parts of the city are cut off from water, electricity and gas. On social networks, people expressed how exposed they were. “There is no protection,” one woman wrote. Citizens complained that there was not enough air defense in the region.
While environmental experts warn about the health consequences of the fire disaster, Russian authorities are reassuring citizens: the situation is “under full control,” reported the consumer authority Rospotrebnadzor. Vladimir Putin also said on Tuesday evening that “the local people are getting along.” He spoke of Kiev’s “terrorist methods” that led to no success. “The enemy is losing territory every day.” Putin failed to mention that Russia attacks civilian facilities in Ukraine on a daily basis. The Kremlin chief, in the manner of a general, did not address the needs of the local residents. The Russian president doesn’t seem to want to see how much the war is shaking people’s everyday lives.
The increased attacks are also affecting tourism in Russia’s south. A quiet season is out of the question in the Black Sea region. Last year, an oil slick contaminated the eastern Black Sea following a tanker accident, meaning that the authorities did not open many of the region’s beaches to swimming. The recurring air alarm doesn’t exactly help with relaxation either. The annexed Crimean peninsula is also the focus of Ukrainian attacks.
