According to the online economy report; The housing market, especially the rental market, will have a difficult year ahead because both housing prices have grown significantly despite the severe recession and the inflation announced by the statistics center has greatly raised the concerns of the renters.
However, in its latest resolution, the Central Bank Board of Governors increased the housing deposit loan ceiling in Tehran to 365 million tomans in order to help the vulnerable sections of the society, and this increased the expectations of receiving this facility. Therefore, according to the statistics, since 1400, about 41% of eligible applicants have been paid housing deposit loans.
Based on the approval of the Supreme Board of the Central Bank, the ceiling for housing loans and deposits in Tehran has increased to 365 million tomans, provincial centers to 280 million, other cities to 185 million and villages to 75 million tomans.
Does the rent increase with the growth of housing prices?
This growth of the rent ceiling has strengthened the analysis in the housing market that now that the ceiling of the housing deposit loan has increased, therefore the rent in the transition season must undergo a fundamental change. A point that some analysts reject.
Housing rent is a function of housing price
Of course, housing market activists and experts always say that housing rent is a function of the housing price, and now that the average housing price in Tehran has increased to 160 million tomans, the rent must also increase according to the housing price.
Now, this increase in the facility ceiling has been done while it seems that this year, according to this resolution, the applicants have a lot of acceptance for deposit loans. However, it should also be taken into account that this increase in the facility ceiling should not pretend that the rent should increase significantly.
Although housing prices have increased this year and at the beginning of the year, analysts and experts believe that this year’s rent cannot increase more than the inflation rate.
73.5% inflation of Statistics Center in April this year
According to the report of the Iranian Statistics Center, in April 1405, the country’s household consumer price index reached 569.3, which is a 5.0 percent increase compared to the previous month, a 73.5 percent increase compared to the same month last year, and a 53.7 percent increase in the twelve months ending this month compared to the same period last year.
Point-to-point inflation means the percentage change of the price index compared to the same month of the previous year. In April 1405, the point-to-point inflation of the country’s households was 73.5%; It means that the country’s households have spent 73.5% more on average than April 1404 to buy a “set of the same goods and services”. Point-to-point inflation in April 1405 has increased by 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Fardin Yazdani, a researcher of urban economics and housing, stated that the rent will grow less than the general inflation rate during the transition season for various reasons and said: If housing prices increase and in the latest statistics published by the central bank, it has the largest share of growth, it is due to the high cost of building materials and the growth of construction costs.
The rent increase cannot exceed the rate of inflation
Yazdani, in response to the question, can we expect rent to be affected and increase due to the growth of housing prices? He said: We will increase the rent, but this increase cannot be more than the inflation rate. Because the power of tenants has decreased and to some extent it will be acceptable for rent growth.
Now, if these statements of the urban economy and housing researcher are cited, it should be asked that if the rent is going to increase less than the inflation rate, will the tenants be able to bear the 70% inflation?
Since 1400, more than 5 million 553 thousand 289 people have registered for housing deposit loans, of which 3 million 202 thousand 879 have qualified for the said loan.
Out of this number, 1 million 324 thousand 384 people have received housing deposit loans. This means that 41.3% of eligible applicants have been paid housing loan.
Also, during this year, 18 thousand 986 people have registered for housing deposit loan, the ceiling of which has been increased.
Paying the housing loan and deposit cannot be a salve for the tenants
Some economic experts say that the payment of housing loan and deposit cannot be a salve for the tenants.
They say that the government should encourage tenants as much as possible to own houses and that paying deposit facilities so that they can get used to renting more easily cannot be very suitable for the future of this group.
Since last year, the government has put the public rental plan on its agenda and even copied it from South Korea in order to better control tenants and rent.
But it must be accepted that to reduce the inflammatory housing market, one cannot be satisfied with only one version, and all economic sectors must rush to help the housing sector by reducing the inflation rate.
