Nicaragua’s agricultural sector, which supports exports and guarantees most of the country’s food securityfaces a horizon of climate uncertainty. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Colorado indicate that there is a good chance that in 2026 the sector will be affected by the El Niño phenomenon. If this is achieved, at a minimum, there will be less rain this year.
However, that is not the biggest risk. Climate forecast models indicate that there is a “very high probability” that El Niño will transform into a “super child” towards the end of 2026. If this occurs, it will be logical to expect that the Dry Corridor will suffer an extreme drought that would not even be mitigated by the arrival of the hurricane season.
Although for now this is only a possibility, producers in the Nicaraguan countryside are already experiencing the first warning signs. In particular, by confirming an increase of at least 25% in the cost of key inputs such as urea.
The fall of the rains in May marked the starting signal for the first sowing, but that began to change a few years ago. Julianan agricultural engineer who asked to remain anonymous, explained that 2026 is shaping up to be a year of erratic rains. He predicts that “rainfall will be significantly below the historical norm of the last 30 years,” recorded by the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (INETER).
“It does not mean that there will be a prolonged drought, but it does mean that the rains will be very irregular. NOAA graphs predict that El Niño will begin its process between May and July, reaching an intensity of 85% or 90% at the end of the year,” he explains. Julian. Although it is only a forecast – with a good chance of materializing – the expert warns that soil and water management will determine who manages to overcome the crisis in the Nicaraguan countryside.
The effect of El Niño will reach even further, according to Colorado State University, which is the world reference in terms of projection of each hurricane season. Your forecast is that in 2026 there will only be 13 named storms, when the average is 14.4.
They estimate that there will be six hurricanes (the average is 7.2), and only two category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes, when the average is 3.2 per year. This result is explained because “El Niño will be the dominant factor for the next hurricane season,” the entity indicated.
Sowing susceptible to “water stress”
In the coffee-growing areas of Matagalpa and Jinotega, the concern is not only the lack of water, but also the high temperatures. Some days, the thermometer reached 34 degrees in high areas such as Peñas Blancas, which are historically cool, which is altering the crop cycle.
Elvin Barrera, agricultural technician, points out that the water deficit is already palpable. “Normally, by this date between 800 and 1000 millimeters of water had already fallen in good years. Right now not even 100 millimeters have fallen in some areas. If the plant receives too much sun and does not have water, the flowering does not take shape, it burns,” he warns.
If it stops raining, the ripening of the coffee stops. “That is a problem, because if it does not ripen it cannot be cut. And if it is cut, it is a coffee that does not have the same quality,” he points out. Fernandoa coffee grower who asked to give his real name.
The most recent El Niño Phenomenon Monitoring Bulletinprepared by the General Directorate of Meteorology of INETER, highlights a “change in the patterns of the El Niño phenomenon, and the phase transition to neutral conditions during this month.”
When detailing the results of the prediction models, they point out that “the continuity of neutral conditions is expected during the month of May, and a phase change to El Niño” between June and July 2026, with a probability of 88%.
The risk for coffee, the main agricultural export product, is twofold. On the one hand, low humidity and high temperatures favor the spread of the borer, a pest that perforates the grain and drastically reduces its value.
Fernando explains another consequence of not having enough rain at the right time. “The grain runs out Honeyand when it goes through the pulper, the machine breaks it instead of peeling it, and that destroys the quality of the coffee.”
In the case of basic grains such as beans, it explains the risk that the lack of rain in the apante harvest, “which is the strongest in bean production,” will significantly reduce the amount of grain to be harvested.
The increase in the cost of inputs: a hit of 25%
Added to the looming climate crisis is inflationary pressure on agrochemicals. Julianwho works in the west of the country, reports that, before the war with Iran, a quintal of urea cost 1,340 córdobas, while now it is around 2,150 córdobas.
Barrera, who these days tends to farms in the south of the country, said that some producers he advises asked the price of fertilizers to start making applications in May and June. The response they received from their usual suppliers left them breathless: the price of the agrochemical that previously cost 1,800 córdobas now ranges between 2,300 and 2,500 córdobas.
Meanwhile, Fernando reports an overprice of almost 25%. “Not so much in foliar fertilizers or fungicides,” he clarifies, but in the specific formula of fertilizers that he uses.
He explains that the average price was 40 dollars per quintal (around 1,465 córdobas), but “now they offered it to me for a little more than 49 dollars.” That is, about 1,795 córdobas, which represents an average increase of 25% since the end of February 2026.
“Those who do not have the money to pay that extra price will have to reduce their applications,” he says. Julian. This generates a vicious circle: less nourished plants are more vulnerable to water stress and pests, which translates into yields below 75% of what was projected.
Barrera explains that, although some producers receive discounts as a reward for their loyalty from commercial companies, in the end this will not do much to reduce production costs. The results will only be known when the yields of the different crops are known, and the prices that the international markets are setting at that moment for each commodity.
Livestock: the risk of being overconfident
The impact of a potential “superchild” is not limited to grains. Livestock farming is also at risk. While producers in areas less blessed by the climate usually prepare by storing forage and cutting grass in silos, ranchers in more humid areas such as Nueva Guinea, Río Blanco, and Bocana de Paiwas, are at greater risk due to lack of foresight.
“The rancher in the humid tropics does not prepare himself with cutting grass because it has always rained,” he warns. Fernando. The memory of the sector remembers livestock mortality that occurred three years agowhen an extraordinary summer dried out the pastures mercilessly. If the El Niño phenomenon intensifies, the lack of food in these mountainous areas could cause a new bovine mortality crisis.
According to the Agrometeorological Bulletin No. 140prepared by several government institutions, in May “rain accumulations are expected to have normal behavior” in the northern, central, North Caribbean Coast and western Pacific regions.
The document warns that “it is likely that in some sectors of the country sudden rains will be recorded with high accumulated rainfall as a result of local warming.”
Basic recommendations to reduce risks
Both experts and producers agree that climate change has changed many things. One of them are the traditional pints and repaintswhich producers used to predict winter based on the behavior of the weather in the first days of January.
“Meteorologists are warning about the rain false” says Julian. He repeats the general recommendation that they do not rush to sow when the late April rains fall, because “that is not the setting of winter.” Instead, the rainy season is expected to set in after May 20.
The expert recalled that it is feared that the heatwave will combine with the ‘Veranillo de San Juan’, generating a period of several days in which there will be no rain either.
Given this scenario, Julian recommends managing risks, and being more careful with the land. Some basic suggestions include choosing seed varieties that are resistant to drought, and choosing the sowing date well. Also, conserve stubble to maintain soil moisture and avoid bare of the lands, which magnifies the negative effects of solar radiation.
Additionally, he recalled the importance of harvest water, establish living fences, and reforest areas to prevent the soil from rapidly losing moisture. Reforest as much as possible. The management of all these variables will determine the yields to be achieved, and how much of their capacity to feeding the population still preserves the country.
