President Alar Karis told the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat (HS) that Europe should prepare to engage with Russia once the war in Ukraine ends.
According to Karis, European countries should jointly prepare to resume dialogue with Russia.
“Are we ready if the war ends today or tomorrow? How should we respond? What should we do? What must Russia do? Preparations should already be under way,” Karis said.
HS notes that while Estonian leaders usually warn about Russia’s expansionist ambitions and the possible spread of the war, Karis is calling on Europe to prepare for the end of the war as well.
Karis emphasized that the war could end tomorrow or in several years, but in any case, Europe must be prepared.
Karis will arrive in Helsinki on Monday evening on a state visit together with his wife, Sirje Karis. They will be accompanied by a 90-member delegation, including representatives from culture and business, Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo, and Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.
Karis’s interview with Finnish media began with concerns that the Russia–Ukraine war could expand and claims that the Baltic states could be next.
The Finnish newspaper notes that the perception of Estonia as the next target has affected foreign investors. Recently, a girls’ football tournament planned in Tallinn was canceled after foreign teams withdrew due to fears of war.
Karis believes that talk of Estonia as the next target is fueled by those who wish to harm the country. He also said that people project their own insecurity onto Estonia. “Perhaps they themselves are afraid of becoming potential targets,” the president reflected.
Suspicious drones have also been spotted in Germany and Denmark, but Karis explained that people living farther away do not understand Russia and fear the unknown. “For us, it is not unknown,” he stressed.
As a young man studying at Miina Härma High School in Tartu, Karis was also taught about the operations of the British and U.S. armies. He explained that this instruction did not amount to brainwashing but instead provoked a counterreaction. “We concealed it skillfully, just as the Finns concealed their understanding of the Soviet Union behind apparent friendship.”
This year, Estonia is spending more than two billion euros on national defense, accounting for over five percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Asked by HS whether this reflects heightened threat perceptions, Karis replied in the negative.
Before World War II, Estonia spent more than 20 percent of its GDP on national defense, but at that time the country had no allies, the president recalled, reaffirming his faith in NATO.
Five years ago, Karis asked why Finland was not joining NATO. Decision-makers at the time responded that the public did not want it. “Five months later, the public was no longer opposed. Everything turned 180 degrees,” he said.
The Finnish newspaper recalled that Karis found himself at the center of a domestic political storm in Estonia after he began speaking about the need to prepare for dialogue with Russia. According to Estonia’s foreign policy line, negotiations are not held with an aggressor state.
“An aggressor must be stopped, and then relations must be reviewed. Russia must change in order to be engaged with,” Karis explained.
Karis cited Cold War–era Finland as an example, where it was possible to prepare for military defense while simultaneously maintaining dialogue. However, he said he would not adopt that model wholesale.
Karis is among the European leaders who believe that the EU should appoint a special envoy for Russia to begin preparations already now for the postwar period. The aim would be to avoid a situation in which major powers make decisions over the heads of smaller countries.
“We have jointly invested in Ukraine, including Estonia and Finland. That means we must have the opportunity to have a say. But that is only possible if we participate in the discussions,” Karis said.
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