Business, unusual: On engaging with the Myanmar junta

Months after a sham election that installed junta chief Min Aung Hlaing as Myanmar’s civilian President, the military continues to wage war on its own people even as the world has largely looked away. More than a lakh people are estimated to have died since the 2021 coup, many in fighting between the junta and the anti-coup People’s Defence Forces and ethnic armed organisations. The junta has also killed thousands of civilians in air strikes on villages in rebel-held areas to terrorise communities into giving up their resistance. With wars affecting Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen, and Iran, the world has grown numb to such violence. The junta has exploited that indifference and a shifting geopolitical situation to act with impunity. Russia and China, its principal arms suppliers, have stood by it with the former supplying jets that were used to bomb civilians. Beijing, which tacitly allowed three ethnic armed organisations to launch an offensive in Shan and Rakhine States in late 2023, has since pressured two of them into ceasefires and returning seized territory. It also backed the January election. Since being sworn in, Min Aung Hlaing has visited India, Thailand, Vietnam and three other ASEAN member-states. ASEAN still swears by its Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an end to violence and dialogue. Yet, its members seem more than eager to do business with a regime that has flouted every point. Meanwhile, U.S. officials reportedly held secret talks with the junta in Tokyo in June and October, and a senior delegation met Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw in September. Japan is reportedly pressing the Financial Action Task Force to take Myanmar off its blacklist.

The motives are not hard to understand. China wants an outlet to the Indian Ocean and security for its oil and gas pipelines. It has also played both sides, dealing with the junta and powerful rebel groups such as the Kachin Independence Organisation, whose territory is rich in rare earths and jade, and the United Wa State Army, which runs a massive tin mine. New Delhi wants to revive its stalled Act East policy, including the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. The U.S. eyes access to mining vital heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium, for use in electric vehicles and weapons systems. What these short-sighted overtures miss is that trade thrives in a country at peace, not one where armed groups are perennially battling for control. The junta which has killed its citizens and has scuttled every move towards democracy cannot deliver that peace. Unless the generals are made to answer for their war crimes, Myanmar will remain a war zone. It will be ruinous not only for its hapless people but also for businesses seeking to trade with it.