Less than 50 days before the November legislative elections, a new national survey offers a very unfavorable x-ray for the Republican Party and the president donald trumpwith the Democrats ahead not only in voting intentions for the Congressbut also on virtually every big issue that concerns Americans.
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The survey of The New York Times and Siena College found that, among voters likely to go to the polls, 51 percent would choose the Democratic candidate of his district compared to the 43 percent who would lean Republican.
A difference of eight points that becomes relevant when there are less than seven weeks until elections in which control of the House of Representatives and the Senate will be at stake.
But perhaps the most revealing data from the survey is not in the so-called “generic ballot” (where the difference is 8 points), but in what happens when Americans are asked which of the two parties inspires greater confidence in handling the country’s main issues.
Archive photograph of the Capitol, seat of the US Congress, in Washington (USA). Photo: EFE/EPA/ Aaron Schwartz
Republicans lose ground on their strong issues
Democrats appear ahead in almost all cases.
The gap is particularly wide in health care, where they lead Republicans 60 percent to 36 percent. But they also lead in fiscal deficit, 51 to 41 percent; cost of living, 51 to 43 percent; economy, 51 to 45 percent; and wars abroad, 50 to 43 percent.
Even on immigration, one of the issues that drove Trump’s return to the White House in 2024 and which for years was one of the Republicans’ political strengths, Democrats now have a seven-point advantage: 52 percent to 45 percent.
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The exception is artificial intelligence, where Republicans have a small two-point advantage, although a very high proportion of those surveyed responded that they did not know which party would handle the issue better.
The result is particularly striking on the economy and immigration, two central issues of the campaign that returned Trump to the White House two years ago and in which the survey now registers a Democratic advantage.
Cost of living becomes a problem for Trump
The cost of living appears to be one of the main factors behind the discontent.
Only 28 percent approve of the way Trump is handling the issue, compared to 71 percent who disapprove. The negative balance is 13 points worse than in January.
The economy, in addition, appears as the main concern of voters and only 14 percent consider that it is better that a year ago. In January, 31 percent thought this way.
But the most pronounced change is among the Republicans themselves.
At the beginning of the year, 72 percent of that party’s voters said the economy was better. Nine months later, only 29 percent hold that view, representing a drop of 43 percentage points.
Only 28 percent approve of the way Trump is handling the cost of living. Photo: EFE
The data does not mean that Trump’s approval among Republicans has decreased in the same proportion. Which specifically measured is your perception of itself economic conditions have improved compared to the previous year.
The survey also records difficulties among Republicans who are at the bottom of the income scale. Among Americans who earn less than $50,000 a year, 63 percent say they would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress compared to 31 percent who would choose a Republican.
Trump had won that segment of the electorate in the 2024 presidential election by a narrow margin, according to exit polls.
The president also reaches the final stretch of the legislative campaign with an approval of just 38 percent among likely voters.
For the first time in his second term, in a Times/Siena poll, an absolute majority, 52 percent, said they “strongly” disapprove of his management.
The war with Iran is also among the sources of discontent. More than three-quarters of independents disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict, as do nearly a quarter of those who voted for him in 2024.
Independents, young and Hispanic
Another signal from the survey focuses on three groups in which Democrats had lost ground in the 2024 presidential elections.
Among independents, 57 percent say they would vote for a Democratic congressional candidate versus 34 percent who would choose a Republican, a difference of 23 points.
His assessment of Trump is also negative. Only 27 percent approve of the president’s management and only 10 percent consider that the economy is better than a year ago.
Among those under 30, Democratic candidates lead Republicans by 35 points and Trump’s approval drops to 18 percent.
The difference is even greater among Hispanic voters, who They favor Democratic candidates by 43 points.
The three groups are relevant because young people, Hispanics and independents were among the sectors in which the Democratic Party lost ground in the 2024 presidential elections.
The survey also detects a significant desire to set limits on the president.
49 percent of voters, for example, say they would prefer to elect a candidate who serves as a counterweight to Trump, while only 26 percent are looking for a candidate who supports the president.
There is also an important difference in electoral enthusiasm. At least 61 percent of Democrats say they will vote in the next election, compared to 56 percent of Republicans who say the same.
The results, however, do not automatically allow this national difference to be transferred to the number of seats that each party will obtain in November.
Elections for the House of Representatives are decided individually in 435 districts, and the geographic distribution of voters, coupled with the way many of those maps are drawn, can produce a distribution of seats different from the aggregate result of the national vote.
The so-called “gerrymandering” (drawing electoral maps to concentrate opponents) and the redesign of districts during this cycle have also reduced the number of truly competitive races.
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In the Senate there is another difficulty. Only a portion of its 100 seats are up for grabs every two years, and several of the states where Democrats seek to gain ground, including Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, were won by Trump by double-digit margins in 2024.
That’s why, the eight-point advantage in the generic ballot It is a measure of the national political climate and does not alone determine which party will control Congress after the elections.
The elections are mostly scheduled for November 3, 2026. Photo: Efe
The survey also does not show an electorate without reservations towards the Democratic Party.
Fifty percent of voters think Democrats have moved too far left, down from 47 percent who previously thought that way, and 51 percent have an unfavorable view of socialism.
At the same time, potential voters were more likely to describe the Republicans as a party of “extreme” compared to their rivals.
The survey of The New York Times and Siena College It took place from September 8 to 13 with 1,503 voters. It is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points your margin of error.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI – EL TIEMPO Correspondent – Washington @sergom68
