Overview:
Forecasters are warning of a drier stretch ahead for Palau as El Niño conditions strengthen, with the sharpest impact expected in the country’s southwestern islands. While no drought has been reported yet, officials are urging residents to keep a close eye on local conditions in the months to come.
By: L.N. Reklai
KOROR, Palau (July 30, 2026)— Forecasters say El Niño conditions are strengthening and are expected to persist through early 2027, raising the risk of prolonged dry periods, water shortages and stress on agriculture and fisheries across Palau in the months ahead, according to a drought information bulletin issued by the National Weather Service valid July 29.
No drought has been reported across Palau’s main islands as of now, the bulletin said. The U.S. Drought Monitor for U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, which tracks conditions using rainfall data over Koror and the main islands, found no drought concerns as of July 26.
Still, forecasters noted a drier trend emerging across Palau’s southwestern islands, which is expected to expand northeastward later in the year. Koror and the rest of Palau are expected to remain relatively wet for now, as the ongoing monsoon keeps moisture in place, according to the bulletin.
“Regional drought guidance is not guaranteed,” the bulletin said, urging local community monitoring to track conditions as they evolve.
Rainfall totals over the 30 days leading up to July 26 came in below normal at Koror and most weather stations across Palau, the report said. Exceptions included the National Weather Service office at Airai, as well as automated weather stations in Melekeok and Aimeliik, which recorded above-normal rainfall for June.
Looking ahead, forecasters expect below-normal rainfall across Palau over the next three months, with the most pronounced impact expected in Hatohobei, the country’s most southwestern island.
The monsoon may also enhance westerly winds and conditions over Palau in the short term, according to the bulletin’s one-week outlook.
May through October marks Palau’s wet season, while November through April is the dry season, with February through April typically the driest stretch, the National Weather Service noted.
El Niño’s broader, long-term effects can include heat extremes, increased wildfire risk, coral bleaching and food security concerns, according to the bulletin. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center figures, updated July 9, show El Niño conditions favored to continue through the spring 2027 forecast period.
The National Weather Service encouraged residents and local officials to monitor conditions closely in the coming months, noting that broad regional forecasts may not capture local variability across Palau’s islands. (Source: National Weather Service)
