Madrid/In Cuba “a hurricane has broken out and what we have to do is take cover.” This is how the Spanish Hermenegildo Altozano defines the current situation of the tourism sector, one of the most recognized investment advisors for foreigners on the Island. The lawyer spoke a little over a month ago with the hotel consultant Ibar Yuste for a podcast that has been issued this Monday and not only has it not lost validity, but after the absolute withdrawal of Meliá, it gains relevance.
In the program, the two experts analyze the past, present and future of the economic sector with the most potential on the Island, which more than tourism itself is real estate in the opinion of both. The role of exile and the Helms-Burton law are also issues widely addressed in a conversation that opens with the lost opportunity that, in the opinion of the interviewee, the Government of Barack Obama represented. “It was a golden opportunity, but instead of having produced that opening towards investment in real estatewhich would have therefore constituted a very capillary or very granular investment in the Cuban economy and would have had a very broad multiplier effect – with everything that came after the MSMEs – since what they did was practically think that they were the kings of mambo and that this situation became a privilege,” Altozano maintains.
“What they did was practically think that they were the kings of mambo and that this situation became a privilege”
Among the serious errors committed by the regime, the specialist points to the “excessive concentration of hotel property in the hands of a chain, which is Gaviota”, of the military conglomerate Gaesa. To this we must add the extraordinary measures of the current Donald Trump Administration, which have caused the Island to function, he describes, “in a flat encephalogram.” Faced with a situation that he defines as anomalous and non-structural, the lawyer believes that it is logical that Spanish companies have tried to take shelter.
Altozano practically ruled out the possibility that the Government of Cuba would end up suing the hotel companies for their departure, a option that was put on the table weeks ago. In his opinion, a case-by-case analysis would be necessary, but it does not seem very likely that the regime will make a claim after having withheld the money of many companies. “There are hotel chains that have not been receiving payments that are theirs for a long time. That is to say, there have been appropriations of funds by Cuban operators who have stopped paying,” he explains.
These “financial corralitos” violate the agreements, which is why, he argues, it would be difficult to understand a scenario of complaints. “On the one hand you say: ‘No, you can’t leave, but I also don’t pay you’. Well, I mean, it turns out that I bring you clients, contact tour operators, fill your hotels, generate foreign currency and it turns out that you don’t pay me. So, how can you be surprised that you have an industry in free fall?” Furthermore, the expert reproaches the Cuban Communist Party for every time it makes decisions they end in nothing. “It has been very frustrating because you see that guidelines were approved, that many economic reforms were announced and in the end it was that of the Leopard: that everything changes so that everything remains the same.”
The Spanish chains, he points out, have been harmed by a US that does not offer legal guarantees, as it should. “I can’t trust a coherent policy from the United States, because an investment requires a lot of time, it requires capital (…) We could do the analysis of all the diseases from the point of view of international law and the violations of international law that the North American policy towards Cuba contains. But the problem is that it is irrelevant because they don’t give a damn. That is, they smoke a cigar, literally, with all those types of considerations.”
Altozano does not hesitate to accuse Washington of also generating, with its policies, harm to the population that, in addition, violates international legality. “You cannot use economic coercion to bring about political change. The Charter of the United Nations tells you that,” he argues. And he quotes the dialogue from a play (A Man for All Seasons) in which a character states that he would cut down all the trees to find the devil and Thomas More responds: “And which tree are you going to take refuge in when the devil turns around and goes against you?” “So what argument is the United States going to use when it is in a situation where it has to invoke international law?” he asks rhetorically.
“You cannot use economic coercion to provoke political change. The United Nations Charter tells you that”
The European Union (EU) is not spared in the review either. The specialist accuses Brussels of looking the other way and not using your own tools to prevent the forced departure of hotel companies. “There is another thing that I would like to point out is the absolute cowardice of the European Commission. That is, they have said absolutely nothing,” he claims. The EU has not used the Blocking Statute – which can render decisions by US courts on European soil without legal effect – nor has it resorted to the new Anti-Coercion Instrument, approved in 2023. “It seems here that everything consists of not disturbing, not doing anything that could disturb.”
Looking to the future, Altozano analyzes at length one of his specialties: Helms-Burton and the claims of exiled Cubans. In his opinion, tourism in Cuba will be dominated by American chains and the capital of those who left. “Over time, first there will be a wave or avalanche or a certain appetite among Cuban-Americans, which is perfectly understandable and logical because it is a kind of recovering what was lost. You already know that in economics one of the main stimuli is the aversion to loss,” he points out.
For Altozano, there are claims of two types. Some are those that are perfectly documented, represented by their titles, which facilitate a type of simple agreement “both the possibility of monetizing these assets through mortgage-backed loans and their own traffic.” The other is newly built assets, on land with previous public ownership, where the situation is more complex due to changes over time. The specialist believes that a global compensatory agreement could be reached as was done with Spain, France, Switzerland or the United Kingdom, but, above all, he considers that it could end in nothing, in exchange for the owners benefiting from the asset.
The specialist believes that a global compensatory agreement could be reached as was done with Spain, France, Switzerland or the United Kingdom, but, above all, he considers that it could end in nothing, in exchange for the owners benefiting from the asset.
“I believe that what’s more, Cuba’s solution is going to be real estate, that is, it is what can immediately attract a lot of investment. Precisely for this reason, it occurs to me to say: if you are in Cuba, if you are in Miami, you are of Cuban descent and you have asset claims (…) (it is advisable) that those 6,000 claims are not touched, that is, that nothing happens.”
Convinced that those who recently emigrated will return to the Island, Altozano highlights the natural entrepreneurial character of Cubans, who – he maintains – will end up being real estate developers on the Island. “From my point of view, it seems quite obvious, it is 20 minutes away.” The specialist points out that the Island continues to have undeniable advantages that make it attractive, starting with its beaches – which he considers unbeatable when compared to other Caribbean destinations – and continuing with its culture, history and a well-educated population. Although he recognizes that in recent years there has been a great deterioration in many areas, such as security, he considers Cuba’s supremacy beyond all doubt.
As to how this will be achieved, the expert admits not having the slightest idea, although he suspects that there will be no armed intervention due to the proximity to the US coasts. “It seems that Cuba is going to be either a bear hug or something more friendly.”
