The Civic Coalition (KO) remains the leading political force in the latest United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska, but its advantage over Law and Justice (PiS) has continued to shrink. The survey also highlights a serious challenge for the current governing coalition: apart from KO, only The Left (Lewica) would secure seats in parliament, while Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) would fail to cross the electoral threshold.
According to the poll, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 29.2 percent of respondents would vote for the Civic Coalition, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous survey.
Law and Justice came second with 24.2 percent support, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. Although the gain is modest, it further reduces the gap between the two largest parties. KO’s lead over PiS now stands at five percentage points.
The next highest results were recorded by the Confederation Liberty and Independence (Konfederacja) with 10.7 percent and the Confederation of the Polish Crown, led by Grzegorz Braun, with 10.1 percent. The Left received 7.8 percent support.
Below the electoral threshold were the Polish People’s Party with 4.1 percent, Razem with 2.8 percent, and Poland 2050, which attracted just 1.1 percent of respondents. Undecided voters accounted for 10 percent of those surveyed.
Governing Coalition Faces Majority Problem
A seat projection prepared using the electoral calculator developed by Jarosław Flis of the Jagiellonian Universityindicates that the Civic Coalition would emerge as the largest parliamentary group with 165 seats. Law and Justice would secure 135 seats.
The Sejm would also include the Confederation with 58 seats, the Confederation of the Polish Crown with 55 seats, and The Left with 47 seats.
The main challenge for the current governing camp is that only The Left, besides KO, would clear the electoral threshold. Together, KO and The Left would control just 212 seats—well short of the 231 required for a parliamentary majority.
The simulation also suggests that parties on the right side of Poland’s political spectrum would collectively command a majority in the Sejm.
The United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska was conducted between June 26 and 28, 2026, using CAWI and CATI methods on a nationwide sample of 1,000 respondents.
