Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda called on Asian countries to more actively integrate energy systems and develop cross-border trade in electricity. According to him, no country can cope alone in matters of energy security.
This call is especially relevant for Central Asia. The region already had a common energy system, known as the Central Asian Energy Ring. Today, countries are returning to this idea again, and Tajikistan is gradually restoring connections with the unified energy system.
ADB bets on cross-border energy
Masato Kanda declared the need interconnect energy systems at the Asian Clean Energy Forum 2026 in Manila. According to the ADB chief, delay could lead to higher energy prices, slower economic growth and missed opportunities for millions of people.
Against this backdrop, ADB is promoting the Pan-Asian Energy Network Initiative – PAGI. Its goal is to connect national and regional energy systems and move from individual interstate projects to more coordinated electricity trade.
PAGI is expected to raise $50 billion by 2035. The initiative should help connect 22,000 km of transmission lines, integrate 20 GW of renewable energy, reduce energy sector emissions and create hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Energy Ring of Central Asia: old idea, new challenges
The idea of interconnecting energy systems for Central Asia is not new. As energy specialist Khamidjon Arifov reminds, back in Soviet times, the United Energy System of Central Asia, or the Central Asian Energy Ring, existed in the region. It united Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
According to Arifov, the system worked through mutual complementarity. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan relied on hydropower, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan relied on thermal generation, gas and coal. In the summer, upstream countries generated more electricity from water, and in the winter they could receive support from their neighbors.
IN EDB report “Central Asian Energy: Energy Sector Modernization and Energy Transition” also notes that during the Soviet period, the work of generation and reservoirs was coordinated by a dispatch office from Tashkent. After the collapse of the USSR, this pattern was disrupted: countries began to build their own energy security, and joint management of water and energy resources weakened.
Today the region is returning to integration again. According to the EDB, this is being driven by growing demand for electricity, deterioration of infrastructure and the need to integrate renewable energy sources. Chairman of the Board of the EDB Nikolay Podguzov notes that the expansion cross-border connections can reduce systemic risks, smooth out seasonal differences and attract investment.
Tajikistan in the energy ring: the south is already connected, the north is on the way
Tajikistan has already begun its return to the unified energy system of Central Asia. Minister of Energy and Water Resources Daler Juma previously statedthat the southwestern part of the country’s power grid was connected to a unified system in June 2024. Connection of the northern region is planned to be completed in the first half of 2026.
According to the minister, the integration of Tajikistan’s energy system into the unified energy system of Central Asia remains one of the priorities. This should improve the reliability of energy supply and expand opportunities for energy exchange with neighboring countries.
In parallel, Tajikistan is developing export projects. One of them is CASA-1000, which should connect Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Daler Juma noted that the Tajik and Kyrgyz parts of the line have already been put into operation.
The Rogun hydroelectric power station is of particular importance. Juma called it a key project for the country’s future energy balance. But along with export opportunities, the main question arises: how to combine electricity supplies abroad with the growing domestic demand of Tajikistan itself?
Arifov: “The energy ring is a big responsibility”
Energy specialist Khamidjon Arifov generally supports the idea of unifying energy systems. In his opinion, if ADB’s proposals are implemented “thoughtfully” and “specifically,” they can have a positive effect.
But, Arifov emphasizes, the energy ring is not only an opportunity to sell and buy electricity. This is a big technological responsibility.
As an example, Arifov cites a major accident in the energy system of Tajikistan during work at the Regar substation, when the shutdown of a large load affected the operation of the Nurek hydroelectric station.
It also recalls the winter of 2007-2008, when a sharp increase in consumption and unauthorized withdrawals of electricity complicated the work of the regional system.
In his opinion, before being fully included in the unified system, countries must modernize power plants, substations and power transmission lines. Technical protection mechanisms are also needed: if an accident occurs somewhere, the system must automatically localize it so that the failure does not drag down all participants.
A separate risk is associated with water. Arifov believes that energy integration should not be built “through one gate.” If countries talk about market relations in the electricity sector, it is necessary to discuss compensation mechanisms for the use of water resources, as well as stimulate water conservation in downstream countries.
For Tajikistan, Arifov believes, it is important to calculate in advance how much electricity the country can export without compromising domestic consumption. Exports through CASA-1000, supplies to neighbors and future output from the Rogun hydropower plant should not undermine industrialization programs and domestic energy supplies.
EDB: the energy ring will not work without grid modernization
The Eurasian Development Bank’s report “Energy in Central Asia: Energy Sector Modernization and Energy Transition” also emphasizes that Central Asia needs regional integration not only for energy trade, but also for the sustainability of the entire system.
According to the EDB, the demand for electricity in Central Asia may grow by about 40% by 2030, from 270 to 370 billion kWh. At the same time, infrastructure remains one of the main problems: in some countries, up to 70% of electrical networks and thermal power plants have exhausted their resources, and losses during the transmission and distribution of electricity reach 15–20%.
For Tajikistan, the report highlights three key features.
First – almost complete dependence on hydropower. This gives the country low-carbon generation, but leaves the system vulnerable to water shortages. In dry years, especially in winter, hydroelectric power production decreases and the country may face electricity shortages.
Second — high losses in networks. According to the report, in 2024, losses in the transmission and distribution of electricity in Tajikistan amounted to 20%, or about 4.5 billion kWh. This is one of the highest indicators in the region.
Third — the need for diversification. Tajikistan has approved the “10/10/10/10” concept by 2030: 10 GW of installed capacity, 10 billion kWh of exports, reduction of losses to 10% and 10% of generation from alternative sources.
The main increase in capacity should come from the completion of the Rogun hydroelectric power station, the construction of new hydroelectric power stations, the reconstruction of existing stations, as well as the commissioning of solar and wind power.
The EDB proposes a “middle path” for the region: not a sharp abandonment of traditional energy and not the preservation of the old model, but the modernization of existing plants, the development of renewable energy sources, energy storage, digital control, reserve capacities and regional integration.
Networks, water and market: what prevents full integration
The main obstacle is worn-out infrastructure. The EDB report states that up to 70% of networks and thermal power plants in some countries in the region have exhausted their resources, and losses in the transmission and distribution of electricity reach 15–20%. Therefore, for full integration, modernized lines, substations, automation and dispatch systems are needed.
Khamidjon Arifov insists on this. In an interconnected power grid, a failure in one part can affect neighbors if networks, stations and protection systems are not prepared to operate in parallel, he said.
The second barrier is water. For Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, water is linked to electricity generation, especially in winter. For downstream countries it is critically important in the summer – for irrigation. The EDB emphasizes that a balance of interests in energy and irrigation is impossible without interstate agreements on water and energy resources.
There are other difficulties: different tariff approaches, subsidies and regulatory rules, lack of spare capacity and political sensitivity of water and energy agreements. Therefore, the energy ring is not only a technical project, but also a matter of trust, rules and long-term commitments between the countries of the region.
What will the energy ring give to the region and Tajikistan?
Grid interconnection could help Central Asian countries better balance seasonal differences. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will be able to export excess hydropower in the summer, and in the winter they will be able to receive support from their neighbors with thermal and gas generation.
For Tajikistan, this means new opportunities: increased summer electricity exports, more efficient use of the potential of the Rogun hydroelectric power station and participation in the future regional market.
This is indicated by Daler Juma’s statements about the country’s return to the unified energy system, plans to export part of Rogun’s generation, as well as the World Bank’s REMIT program to create a regional electricity market.
But the benefit will depend on the conditions. The EDB report highlights the need to modernize networks, reduce losses, develop reserves and transparent trading rules. Khamidjon Arifov warns once again: the effect of unification will only be when networks, stations and protection systems are ready for parallel operation. Separately, in his opinion, it is necessary to discuss the water factor, compensation for the use of water resources and risks for Tajikistan’s internal energy supply.
Therefore, the main question today is not whether energy systems need to be interconnected. The question is under what conditions this unification will be safe, beneficial and fair for all countries in the region.
