The most combat clashes in the past 24 hours took place in the direction of Pokro. Andriy Kramarov, a military expert and reserve officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated this on Radio NV on Thursday, according to which the Russian forces are trying to create the conditions for further progress in the Donetsk region. Are they doing well?
Photo: Ukrainian General Staff
Ukrainian soldiers fire from the Grad system at Russian positions.
The fall of Pokrovsko did not bring Russia an immediate operational breakthrough. The independent mapping project DeepState has been showing Pokrovsk as fully Russian-controlled territory for several weeks, but fighting continues in the wider area of the city. At the same time, experts warn that the precise determination of the lines of control is increasingly difficult due to the vast “death zones” created by drone warfare.
According to Kramarov, Russia is trying to gain full control over the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, which it cannot yet use effectively due to the proximity of Ukrainian positions. “There, the Russians are trying to get this entire agglomeration under control more significantly. From the point of view of the map, they control it conditionally, but our units and positions are so close that they cannot start using it effectively.” he said Kramarov.
According to him, the aim of the Russian forces is to push the Ukrainian army further away from Pokrovskoe and Myrnohrad and then use the area as a bridgehead to advance along the route towards Dobropillia, Bilozerske and Novodonetsk. Such a procedure would allow Russia to approach the administrative border of the Donetsk region.
Pokrovsk was important for Ukraine as a railway and logistics hub, its loss therefore improved Russia’s starting position for further pressure in the Donetsk region. However, it did not pave the way for a quick takeover of the rest of Donbas. CSIS analysts recalled that the Russian advance from Avdijivka to Pokrovsk from February 2024 to January 2026 measured less than 50 kilometers and reached an average of about 70 meters per day, which shows how slow, expensive and attritional Russian military campaigns are.
Different tactics at Kosťantynivka
According to Kramarov, Russian troops are using different tactics in the vicinity of Kosťantynivka. Instead of larger attacks, they try to penetrate Ukrainian defenses in small groups of one or two soldiers. “This is how they are trying to expand the gray zone and get a key transport hub under complete control,” the expert said. However, he added that it is still premature to talk about visible Russian successes, as active fighting continues in the area.
Kramarov also drew attention to the increased activity of Russian forces on the left bank of the Oskil river near Kupiansko-Vuzlov. According to him, Russia’s goal is to push Ukrainian troops out of the bridgehead on this bank.
Earlier, Viktor Trehubov, the spokesman for the Group of United Forces, drew attention to the deterioration of the situation in several sections of the front. He claims that Russian forces have become significantly more active in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions and are entering the peak of their summer offensive campaign. According to Trehubov, Moscow may try to achieve at least partial results on the battlefield before Ukrainian forces definitively cut off its logistics.
Analysts of the DeepState project also report a difficult situation at Lyman. According to their information, Russian groups are already appearing on the outskirts of the city, however, according to DeepState, Ukrainian drone operators are effectively destroying the manpower that tries to penetrate there.
According to CNN, Russian statements about the progress at Kostântynivka are exaggerated. Moscow claimed it had gained “full control” of the eastern part of the city and was closing in on its northeastern edge. But analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say that parts of the city have actually moved into a so-called gray zone that is not fully controlled by either side.
Ukrainian soldiers for CNN they admittedthat the situation in Kostântynivka is deteriorating, but at the same time they claim that it remains under control and that Russian progress is extremely slow.
Occupy the entire Donbas by September 2026?
According to CNN, Russia’s key goal remains the complete occupation of Donbass. To achieve this goal, Moscow also needs to acquire Kostiantynivka, which is currently one of the Kremlin’s main targets in the region.
According to CNN, the Russian tactic near the city consists of deploying small groups on foot, whose task is to penetrate the built-up area. Moscow used a similar procedure in the fighting for Pokrovsk, which lasted months after Russian troops first entered the city.
CNN reports that Russia may have set a goal of fully occupying Donbas by September 2026. However, according to the Institute for the Study of War, it is unlikely that the Kremlin will be able to achieve this goal.
“The most important thing is that they want to announce information victories. The Russians now feel many vulnerabilities. Infiltrations are one way for Russia to make grandiose declarations of victory without actually fully achieving its goals,” an expert at the Institute for the Study of War told CNN.
