The ceasefire reportedly just agreed between the United States and Iran reflects US President Donald Trump’s desperation to escape the quagmire of his own creation. Gone is the confusing set of objectives it promoted in the early days of the war. All the Trump administration would have gotten in the new deal is a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open before the war, and plans for new negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, which were already under discussion. But even these reduced goals could prove unattainable if Israel continues its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Trump has had enough of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It was Netanyahu who advised him in 2018 to abandon the nuclear deal that then-President Barack Obama had reached with Iran three years earlier, leaving Trump with the responsibility of achieving a better one.
Netanyahu also convinced Trump to launch the current war by presenting a heady vision in which the world’s two most powerful air forces would quickly destroy the Islamic Republic’s military and nuclear facilities and topple a regime that had long been a thorn in its sides. Now, Netanyahu is the final obstacle to a deal that would allow Trump to put the resulting nightmare behind him.
Trump and Netanyahu were never really on the same page. Although Trump liked the idea of an “unconditional surrender” from Iran, he had no appetite for a prolonged military commitment. If things came to a head, a nuclear deal that he could present as superior to Obama’s would always have been enough for him.
For Israel, however, eliminating the threat of ballistic missiles from Iran, as well as that country’s support for its allied militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen, has always been a non-negotiable issue. The problem is that on these issues, Iran is not willing to give in at all. Unlike nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and allied militias are existential necessities for Iran.
Lebanon, where Israel is trying to decimate the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, is a particular flashpoint. After northern Israel has lived under fire from Hezbollah for the past three years, Israel has vowed to remain in southern Lebanon as long as necessary to eliminate the threat, regardless of what the United States says. In open defiance of Trump, Israel launched an airstrike on Beirut on Sunday, just as the United States and Iran finalized their ceasefire.
This action could have derailed the agreement. As Iran’s Foreign Ministry has made clear, an end to Israeli hostilities in Lebanon is a prerequisite for “any ceasefire and any final agreement.” Furthermore, if Israel continues to attack Lebanon, Iran will continue to retaliate against Israel. “Supporting the resistance in Lebanon is the duty of all of us, and expelling Israel from the region is an achievable goal for Muslims,” the head of the Quds Force, the foreign operations and military intelligence arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), recently declared.
Iranian bluster will not deter Netanyahu. He knows that although Iran’s strategic victory against two global military powers makes the regime feel invincible, its ability to defend the country is limited. A new offensive by the Israeli air force, even against civilian infrastructure, can only weaken the position of the Islamic Republic.
Trump, however, could become a problem for Israel. The Iranian quagmire has tanked his approval ratings, distracted him from his self-promotional spectacles, such as celebrating his 80th birthday, and prevented him from claiming the quick “victory” he craves in Cuba. And he is willing to sacrifice Israel’s fundamental interests to get out of this situation. As Vice President JD Vance recently noted, the United States and Israel “have many shared interests,” but “they also have some situations where our interests diverge”; The United States’ “primary objective” in Iran is to ensure that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons.
Following this logic, the Trump administration could claim that its master negotiator has triumphed once again, but only if Israel aligns with its plans. Trump is so desperate for Israel to stop hindering him that he has begun frantically insulting Netanyahu. “You are completely crazy,” he allegedly yelled at him in a recent call. “You would be in prison if it weren’t for me.” At this point, Trump appears to show more respect to IRGC officials than to Netanyahu.
There is perhaps no better sign of the deterioration of the US-Israel alliance than Trump’s insistence that he is the one “calling the shots,” and that Netanyahu has no choice but to submit, even if it means abiding by an agreement that does not support Israel’s security interests. The relationship between two democracies founded by pioneering immigrants has degenerated into a conspiracy between dishonest leaders, with the lord berating the vassal for stepping out of line.
Whatever happens next, Trump and Netanyahu will not escape the judgment of history. Their war of deception in Iran constitutes the most monumental strategic defeat that two military superpowers have ever suffered at the hands of a sick and bankrupt regime. Iran has emerged from the war stronger than ever, as the master of postwar Middle East geopolitics. The new ceasefire only expands this strategic gain: the American president now acts as protector of Lebanon and, by extension, of the Iranian ally in that country.
Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Foreign Minister of Israel, is the author of Prophets Without Honor: The 2000 Camp David Summit and the End of the Two-State Solution (Oxford University Press, 2022).
