This dynamic will continue to be supported by spending devoted to infrastructure of transportation and of logistics in the perspective of the 2030 World Cupas well as the significant investments of public companies in the energy and infrastructure sectors. BMI specifies in particular that OCP plans to invest between 25 and 30 billion dirhams per year until 2027 in order to increase its fertilizer production capacities and develop its projects in renewable energies. THE private companies should also play an increased role in investment dynamics over the coming years.
BMI also notes a clear acceleration in bank credit granted to non-financial private companies. In April 2026, it recorded its fastest growth in more than five years in real terms, benefiting in particular from the decline in interest rates compared to the peaks reached at the start of 2024.
Agricultural added value – which represented 8.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 – constitutes a third engine of growth for 2026. Favorable weather conditions have allowed an increase of more than 120% year-on-year in the production of wheat and barley, cereals usually representing 40 to 55% of total agricultural tonnage. This rebound should, according to BMI, partially offset supply chain disruptions and cost pressures generated by the conflict in the Middle East in other sectors of the economy.
On the side of the domestic demandhousehold consumption is expected to increase by around 3.4% in 2026. Although geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures weigh on purchasing power, this pace would remain significantly higher than the long-term average of 2.3%.
BMI also believes that improving weather conditions and the expected increase in agricultural employment, particularly in rural areas, should support household incomes and consumption. Other indicators demonstrate the resilience of domestic demand: sales of the Kingdom’s main multi-format distributor increased by 4.2% in real terms in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year, after almost zero growth a year earlier. Sales of passenger cars, considered a relevant indicator of private consumption, for their part jumped by 22.9% year-on-year at the end of April 2026, extending the dynamic observed in 2025.
Industry also continues to display sustained levels of activity. The average production capacity utilization rate reached 77.7% in the first quarter of 2026, a level close to the peak of around 80% observed at the end of 2025. According to BMI, comparable utilization levels have historically coincided with sustained rates of economic growth.
Main risks to growth
The institute also emphasizes that the risks remain oriented downwards for economic outlook for Morocco. A inflation stronger than anticipated could further erode household purchasing power and slow down consumption. A slowdown or postponement of public investments, a marked drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows linked to macroeconomic uncertainty, or even a return of Bank Al-Maghrib to a policy of recovery of interest rate would also constitute factors unfavorable to growth.
Furthermore, less dynamic demand than expected in the main European markets would weigh more on Moroccan exports. Finally, the support provided to growth by improved cereal production could be attenuated if other major crops perform less favorably. A return to severe drought conditions in 2027 would again reduce cereal harvests and affect agricultural added value.
