Antonino Ciulla, managing director of AV Securities, warns that Venezuela accumulates close to $161 billion in debt after nine years in default, a scenario that, far from scaring away, is beginning to generate investment opportunities in the event of a possible restructuring.
What has happened to Venezuela’s public debt? Can part of the investment be recovered? Will there be a restructuring or not? With the political and economic change, international and local creditors closely follow every move of the transitional government and the guidelines of the United States, in a context that could redefine one of the largest sovereign debt restructuring processes in the region.
Antonino Ciullamanaging director and partner at AV Securities Inc., explained during the forum “Venezuela: challenges, opportunities and investment prospects”organized by La Prensa together with AV Securities and Hamilton Reserve Latam, that the Caribbean country has been in default for almost a decade – since 2017 -, accumulating obligations to pay that, according to market estimates, range between $150 billion and $170 billiondepending on the calculation of interest and litigation. In his analysis, he places the debt around the $161 billionincluding principal and interest accumulated after years of non-payment.
“The country has been in default for nine years, nine years that it has failed to fulfill its commitments“Ciulla stressed, highlighting that one of the key elements of the analysis is the growth of interest due. He explained that creditors will not only claim the original capital, but also the accumulated coupons: “When there is a restructuring, they will ask for double”which significantly increases the real size of the debt.
According to the specialist, the Venezuelan bond market is already beginning to reflect this change in expectations.
During the worst years of sanctions and pandemic, securities were trading practically worthless, with levels close to 1% or 5% of its nominal price. Today, in a more optimistic scenario, the bonds are located in ranges between 35 and 60 cents per dollardepending on the issuer and maturity, suggesting that the market anticipates some type of recovery.
The appeal, however, is not without risks. Ciulla explained that a possible restructuring would imply a cut between 30% and 50%along with new financial conditions. Still, this scenario could generate value for investors entering at current prices. “There may be value there,” he said, referring to the treatment of accrued interest, known as past due interest (PDI), which could be recognized under conditions similar to capital.
Antonino Ciulla warned that the Venezuelan economy is still far from recovering, recalling that the country’s GDP is still 40% below 1998 levels. https://t.co/Jv0CT2FvT1 pic.twitter.com/nBl56to1ap
— La Prensa Panamá (@prensacom) April 15, 2026
In parallel, the Venezuelan stock market has also shown signs of reactivation, although with limitations and lower values. The Caracas Stock Exchange went from a capitalization close to $1.3 billion to almost $16 billionalthough with still low liquidity levels, which are around $60 thousand dailycompared to the barely $4 thousand recorded at the most critical moments. This behavior reflects an incipient recovery, but still restricted by operational and regulatory barriers.
At the end of March, Venezuela’s stock market capitalization stood at $18,394 million, which represented a growth of 8.17% compared to the previous month.
Despite this context, Ciulla issued a warning to investors: enthusiasm must be moderate. “There are no cheap assets,” he said, emphasizing that part of the recovery is already built into current prices. However, he acknowledged that there is still upside potential if an orderly restructuring is carried out and the political and economic environment is stabilized.
In that sense, the Venezuelan debt stops being seen only as a problem and begins to be positioned as a high-risk opportunity, where the value will depend on the political outcome, the ability to negotiate with creditors and the country’s reintegration into international financial markets.
During the round of questions, Antonino Ciulla addressed one of the most sensitive topics for the market: the future of the Venezuelan debt and the time its restructuring will take. Although he avoided giving an exact deadline, he made it clear that the country has incentives to resolve this situation. “It is very difficult to say in what period, but it is in your greatest interest to resolve this issue to be able to return to international markets.“, he noted, highlighting that access to external financing will be key to economic recovery.
He explained that an eventual restructuring will depend largely on the political context and the conduct of electoral processes that give greater legitimacy to the new economic scheme. “There have to be elections for there to be a restructuring… that opens the doors for you,” he stated, emphasizing that this factor will be decisive in advancing agreements with creditors.
Regarding the real value of the bonds, Ciulla delved into the impact of the interest accumulated after years of non-payment. He indicated that an investor who today owns securities worth $100,000 could actually claim close to $195,000 in a negotiation. “As there are 10 years of accumulated interest… they owe you almost double,” he explained, detailing how this component can influence the final result of the restructuring.
Regarding the stock market, he warned that, although Venezuelan bonds are now negotiable again and have liquidity, the development of the stock market still faces limitations. “The bond market is very liquid… but the stock market still needs legal and operational changes,” he said, mentioning barriers such as obtaining bolivars and the low depth of the local market.
Finally, Ciulla reiterated that, despite the risks, the market’s interest is evident. “There are no longer sanctions to buy bonds… anyone in the world can participate,” he indicated, highlighting that the Venezuelan market is once again open for investors, although under a scenario that requires caution and strategic analysis.
