By Jo Moir, Political Editor, RNZ and is re-published with permission
Analysis: A new poll showing National sitting on just 30 percent, and the coalition unable to govern, has set the stage for a crucial week in Christopher Luxon’s prime ministership.
This result is National’s worst in the 1News-Verian poll since Luxon became leader in November 2021.
Labour is up five points on 37 percent, while National’s 30 is down four points since February.
For the other parties in the coalition, New Zealand First is steady on 10 percent, while Act has dropped two points to seven.
On the other side of the house the Greens and Te Pati Maori are both unchanged on eleven and two, respectively.
It gives the centre-left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori the seats needed to govern with 66 compared to the coalition’s 58, if an election was held today.
Luxon’s personal favourability has taken a decent hit in this poll too, down four points to 16 percent, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins is down one to 19 percent.
The results follow several polls in recent weeks showing National on about 29 percent – the party’s official result in Sunday night’s poll was 29.7, but rounded up to 30.
The prime minister told TVNZ on the back of those results he hadn’t considered resigning.
This latest poll headache comes after a torrid Friday for the prime minister where he was again forced to defend his leadership.
Poor polling, including record- low personal favourability, has been dogging Luxon for months.
A NZ Herald story on Friday morning reported senior whip Stuart Smith tried and failed to get hold of Luxon before Easter to warn him there were rumblings about his leadership from within caucus.
The article reported multiple anonymous sources saying Luxon had evaded Smith, despite the pair both being at Parliament during a sitting week.
RNZ has confirmed with a senior Beehive source that meeting was attempted by Smith, but both Luxon and his office have denied it.
Luxon insisted at a media conference on Friday that he had had the “numbers” and the “full support” of his caucus. He also maintained the coalition could still govern on public polling – not the case however after Sunday’s poll, nor was it the case in RNZ-Reid Research’s poll last month where the result was a hung parliament.
The 1News-Verian poll was in the field until Wednesday, so didn’t capture Friday’s problems for the prime minister.
It has been two weeks since the caucus met at Parliament due to the school holiday recess, and that support will be tested when they gather in Wellington on Tuesday morning.
Luxon will also have to explain, if asked, why he publicly denied the Smith reports.
In recent weeks it’s not only National MPs who have been leaking their unhappiness with the direction of travel the party is heading in, but staff have also been unhappy about how they’re being treated.
Some staff feel they were a victim of a point-scoring reshuffle by Luxon that has seen a number off them “evented”, which means they have lost their jobs and could potentially apply for a new one, but not necessarily in the office they have been working in.
Other staff have been frustrated with Luxon’s unwillingness to listen, take advice, or make change.
Both MPs and staff have expressed the prime minister is getting worse, not better, at public appearances and media interviews, which doesn’t bode well heading into a tightly-contested election campaign.
In amongst that, there has been speculation MPs are keen for change, and Chris Bishop has spent weeks denying he is lining himself up as leader.
He spent the weekend batting away suggestions he was planning to roll Luxon.
At a media conference on Saturday in his Hutt South electorate, in response to questions about his relationship with the prime minister, Bishop confirmed he has confidence in Christopher Luxon but declined to discuss private conversations.
“The Prime Minister and I talk all the time… but I’m not going to get into what I’ve said to him or what he’s said to me recently.”
“Look, I’m just head down, bum up on my portfolios and also working hard locally as well,” he told reporters.
On Sunday in a TVNZ Q+A interview, Bishop denied he was plotting to take the leadership from Luxon.
He said comments that have made their way into the media about flagging support for Luxon and unhappiness in the caucus were “unhelpful”.
Bishop denied any knowledge of Smith’s attempts to warn Luxon about his caucus support, and told Q+A people shouldn’t be “talking out of school” because it’s not the “right way to do things”.
“That is unhelpful and untidy and indicates that the National Party is focused on ourselves rather than focused on the country.”
Bishop said those people in caucus who had spoken to the NZ Herald, who broke the story about Smith on Friday, were clearly “unhappy and untidy”.
“I am prepared to accept that. That is sort of a statement of fact, I am not going to deny the reality.”
The transport and housing minister said he wasn’t aware of anyone in the caucus who thought Luxon shouldn’t be leader, and said he didn’t believe the prime minister was dragging down the party’s performance.
A fresh poll result showing National would lose 12 MPs if that result was replicated on election day might give those at risk of losing their job plenty to think about ahead of Tuesday’s gathering.
