MOSCOW, June 2. /TASS/. Israeli strikes on Lebanon bring war back to the Middle East; African countries look to Russian assistance in fighting terrorism; and the Strait of Hormuz blockade may trigger a global financial collapse. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Israeli strikes on Lebanon bring war back to Middle East
Iran has announced a suspension of diplomatic communications with the United States, citing Israel’s growing military operations in Lebanon, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that his army would resume strikes on areas of Beirut where the Hezbollah movement still maintains a presence. Notably, an end to attacks on Lebanon’s capital region was one of the key demands put forward by Iranian diplomats in talks with the US.
Another reason behind the tough move by Iran could be radical changes in the country’s political system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has always been highly influential, now seems to have effectively usurped power. The US hoped to deal with more flexible Iranian politicians but now has encountered a hardline stance by the IRGC, political scientist Yelena Suponina, an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia. However, it is Washington’s actions that have created a new balance of power in Tehran. The killing of Ali Khamenei, the country’s powerful supreme leader, triggered profound changes within Iran’s leadership.
Still, the US and Iran remain interested in easing tensions. According to Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher with the Center of Arab and Islamic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, the situation remains under control with a limited scale of fighting. US President Donald Trump has abandoned the idea of immediately resuming bombardment, probably because the US authorities are counting on the pressure of sanctions and the economic blockade of Iran.
“In such a situation, the settlement process could be put on hold but this does not rule out a return to negotiations. The reason is that talks became possible precisely because neither party was able to achieve its goals solely through military means. And the situation has not changed much,” the expert pointed out.
Lukyanov believes that the IRGC leadership is in favor of maintaining dialogue but not on the terms that would make Iran surrender, accepting unacceptable US demands. In short, the negotiation process will continue one way or another because at this point, both parties recognize the need to reach a deal.
The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) seeks Russia’s support in ensuring internal security, Oita Etyang, Head of Governance, Peace and Security at COMESA, told Izvestia. The organization relies on Moscow for support in the fight against terrorism, transnational crime, and other threats. Armed groups’ activities undermine trade, logistics , and investment in these countries. Experts believe that previous cooperation models involving European countries have left African nations disappointed so that they are now searching for new partners.
Russia has considerable experience in addressing such threats, Maya Nikolskaya, head of Moscow State Institute of International Relations’ program titled “Africa in the focus of Russian interests,” noted. Such work could involve various training programs, particularly aimed at preventing radicalization and terrorist activities.
Moscow is already actively engaged in efforts to combat terrorist groups in Africa, and is working to strengthen security cooperation. These countries had long relied on France’s military presence but it failed to stabilize the region. According to Nikolskaya, cooperation with European nations no longer satisfies African countries, which is why they are interested in expanding their external partnerships.
Notably, competition over Africa is intensifying not only in the field of security but also in trade. COMESA is interested in economic cooperation with Russia. In particular, the parties could work together to develop the organization’s new Digital Retail Payments Platform for cross-border transactions in national currencies.
Russia’s trade with the countries of the continent has grown by more than 60% in the past five years. The growth is driven by exports of food, mineral fertilizers, energy, and goods from the engineering and chemical industries. It’s no surprise that COMESA is interested in Russia. The fight against terrorism and transnational crime, which Moscow is capable of supporting, is expected to reduce threats to trade and infrastructure. For Russia, this indicates a clear prospect of gaining a foothold on the African market, while for COMESA member states, it means gaining a new reliable partner.
If commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is restored only in the second half of the year, damage to the global economy will reach the levels recorded during the coronavirus pandemic, when global GDP lost over $3 trillion, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, citing World Economic Forum analysts. In Russia, economists believe that the US failure in Iran signals a global financial crisis.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has marked one of the biggest crises in the history of capitalism, with huge consequences for economies all over the world, Ilaria Maselli, head of the Macro and Market Insights team at Maersk, pointed out. According to her, analysts are now trying to assess the scale of the Iran crisis in comparison with the coronavirus pandemic shock in terms of their impact on global economic growth and inflation rates.
In Russia, some economists believe that the Iran crisis is changing the global economic balance of power and these changes will have a long-term impact.
“The failure of US-Israeli aggression and the refusal of the United States’ NATO satellites to participate in it indicate the breakdown of Pax Americana. It will be followed by a global financial crisis triggered by a sharp rise in oil and gas prices,” Russian Academy of Sciences member Sergey Glazyev said earlier.
Meanwhile, experts predict that transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz may never return to previous levels due to geopolitical risks, CNBC reports. Specialists estimate that shipping traffic could only recover to 60-70% of pre-war volumes, while passage for Western vessels will require bilateral agreements with Tehran.
Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran in operational control of the strait would lead to a significant decline in shipping flows, industry experts warn.
Media: Armenia unlikely to join EU until 2030
While Armenia is being torn between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Brussels is in no hurry to consider its membership. Yerevan is unlikely to join the EU in the coming years, a European Parliament member told Izvestia. Meanwhile, less than a week remains before Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections, and debates over the country’s future are intensifying daily.
Although Armenia is viewed positively within the EU and official relations continue to deepen, the membership issue remains largely theoretical. Given Armenia’s geographical position and difficult relations with at least one of its neighbors, such a candidate raises numerous questions, Fernand Kartheiser, a European Parliament member representing Luxembourg, told the newspaper.
“We still have a long way to go in terms of institutional, political and economic reforms. This is why, in my view, Armenia’s accession to the European Union before 2030 seems unrealistic,” Tagui Tovmasyan, an independent Armenian parliament member, said.
What complicates Armenia’s EU prospects is the country’s EAEU membership. Today, Yerevan is at a point of no return in its policy of a pivot to the West, Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, pointed out. In order to win the elections, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has placed his bet on closer ties with Europe and the United States. He seeks to convince voters that the country pursues a multi-vector development approach, building stronger relations with the West without severing ties with Russia. “This is why Pashinyan is literally trying to sit on two or three chairs at once at the moment,” Mukhanov noted.
The outcome of the vote will largely depend on voter turnout, political analyst Tigran Kocharyan told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. “Pashinyan is interested in keeping voter turnout low. His team is working to give the people the impression of an inevitable landslide victory. In such circumstances, opposition voters may conclude that it makes no sense for them to cast their ballots as they have already lost. Meanwhile, Pashinyan’s opponents plan to encourage as many voters as possible to come to the polling stations,” the expert explained.
Russian gas supplies to European Union countries via the TurkStream pipeline rose by 3% in May 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to Vedomosti estimates based on data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).
TurkStream is the only remaining gas pipeline for Russian gas deliveries to the EU. The pipeline consists of two strings, with one supplying gas to Turkey and the other running through Bulgaria to Southeast European countries such as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Hungary. The current volume of gas supplies through the European string of the pipeline significantly exceeds its design capacity.
Russian gas exports to the EU grew in May amid low replenishment rates of underground storage facilities in European countries. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and underground injections declined due to a rise in global prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Kirill Bakhtin, head of the center for Russian stock analysis at BCS World of Investment, explained.
The EU will increase imports in late June and July even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Maria Belova, research director at the Implementa consulting company, believes. Notably, gas prices may rise even higher, possibly returning to their March peak levels, Finam Analyst Sergey Kaufman noted.
Analysts expect that demand for gas supplies via TurkStream will remain higher than usual until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Belova and Kaufman predict that Russian gas exports to the EU through the pipeline will increase by about 6% in 2026. Demand could be even higher but certain technical limitations prevent further increases in supplies, Belova said.
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