- Will Ebola appear in our country? It is unlikely due to WHO measures, isolation, and few trips from us to Africa, but you never know if it will not be implanted from Europe and maybe the USA. Is this a disaster or a cataclysm? We expect it to be an epidemic (Congo and surroundings), but not a pandemic. If one case appears in our country, it is the same as a very dangerous epidemic. Should we be afraid? Caution yes, panic no! We must be alert. All relevant services should be ready and on alert. Especially where there is turnover and returns.
Have you seen the movie “Variola Vera” from 1982, with the famous roles of Rade Šerbedžija, as a “mangoup dude doctor”, and Rade Marković, a “self-righteous” doctor who runs away from a critical situation? A famous sentence of Šerbedžija about Marković was: “Pi… is a sex organ, and piz… a character trait.” This could also apply to others, not only doctors, for example ministers, managers, friends, security guards, antifaders, husbands… Hey, imagine a combination of a minister, a doctor and an “organ-character” in one person – yyyy! We can also make a mathematical model of a combination of minister, doctor, character and mortality from some disease – wow! When it’s thick – for example a war or a pandemic, we have more “characters” than “organs”. For example, my whole family and other families were killed in the camp because of such “characters” who “helped” the occupiers. And how they died from smallpox – you saw on the film. Imagine, the first patient who came from a pilgrimage was supposed to come to Skopje, but changed his mind and went to Belgrade, and someone who saw smallpox recognized him, but with a great delay. Imagine (from the movie) that there were no skin changes, so the symptoms and signs would be like Ebola – fever, stomach upset, vomiting, pain, bleeding and death. Many different viruses make the same manifestations. And radiation sickness has similar manifestations (plus skin) as those in Hiroshima, Chernobyl or Vincha, so imagine a pandemic that will look like the whole world has been irradiated by atomic or “dirty” bombs. Experience shows that most often only an epidemically sharp “peak” (top) on the time graph (Poisson) occurs, without globalism (pandemic) occurring.
By the way, I am not an epidemiologist by profession. But I had a world-renowned professor of epidemiology – Professor Bogdan Karakašević. And he became my friend (patient). Later I became interested in mathematical modeling of epidemics. It’s all math. The professor was saying that an epidemic has three phases – growth (exponentially upwards), peak and decline (logarithmically downwards, due to the “exhaustion” of the epidemic, which means that almost everyone has passed the disease or died). Just like the US-Iran war – first build-up, peak and “decline” (exhausted logistics). The peak of the epidemic is acute if there is a therapy or a vaccine. In general, the models simply go like this: number of patients = A – B. “A” is the vector of growth (Newtonian force or growth field) and “B” is the vector of decline (force or field that “inhibits” – therapy or natural factor). Well, with this “simple” method you can understand all models of epidemics or economic movements, war, biology, Darwinism, societies, capitalism, and even the genesis of states, etc. Today you will only think, and the solution will be performed by artificial intelligence (AI). Can AI cause an epidemic? In theory, yes! This Ebola epidemic will have a sharp peak, due to effective isolation and the natural factor – different from that of covid, which literally “explodes” around the world, with huge consequences. We will see.
Now let’s get down to the specifics. The situation is very, very serious. Some experts predicted that the next epidemic will be from Ebola and, oops, it appeared in Africa – eastern Congo (Kivu, Kampala, Kinshasa, and the epicenter is in Ituri) and Uganda, so the vector goes to the center of Africa, and it can be anywhere. And the mortality of this strain (Bundibugio) is similar to variola – about 50 percent, and that of Zaire up to 90 percent, because there is a vaccine for variola, so it has been eradicated, but there is none for Ebola of this strain. Some vaccines are being announced from Britain and Texas, but they have yet to be tested. Imagine such mortality in Macedonia or the Balkans? Gone are the states and nations! Is the world taking the situation seriously? Well, WHO yes, the world is lukewarm, self-righteous like that character of Rade Marković, and we are here too. The American centers are “more optimistic”, they believe that it will not be transmitted there. It is important for them not to stress the stock market. The French are very worried – Congo is in their zone of interest along with others, and so are the Italians – so the covid in these countries made a storm. Do you remember that the first cases in Macedonia came from Italy, first to Skopje, then to Debar? Keep this in mind as well. Otherwise, how intensively and quickly the infection will spread depends on biological factors (contagiousness, population density, how it is transmitted – air or secretions) and transport. If transport is slow like in Africa (horses, trucks), spread will be slow. Imagine a bunch of infected people traveling by plane! So was the first case of AIDS. The Ebola virus remains in semen even after recovery. Is Ebola transmitted by inhalation? No. Thank God, whites will stay that way. Respiratory (respiratory tract) infections are highly contagious and spread rapidly. They have a high “infectivity index” (P0 = how much will be infected from one patient) – from 2 to 15. For Ebola, P0 is from 1.2 to 2.5.
In very close (family) this index is called SAR (secondary attack rate) and in Ebola it is from 5 to 15. Ebola is transmitted by direct contact – through excreta, saliva, feces, urine, wounds, injured mucous membranes – meaning through dishes, blood, funerals, medical instruments, sheets, clothes, work without gloves, all surgical or medical manipulations, examinations, sexually, eating meat from infected animals and unhygienic (think of the trash!). They are quickly destroyed by temperature. It is not transmitted through water and sewage. Do animals transmit Ebola? Yes – bats (African), monkeys, antelopes and porcupines. Mice have not been shown to transmit (as with hanta and plague viruses) but can be experimentally infected. There are 139 deaths to date, and around 600 detected (May 22). It is expected that there will be over 1,000 infected, and I believe more despite all the measures. It is dangerous for Macedonia if it is called in neighboring countries and where there are workers (Italy, France, Germany, Emirates). They rarely travel to Africa.
Let’s repeat in more detail what the manifestations are. Incubation is 21 days. A vaccine for the Zaire strain does not work on Bundibugyo. Manifestations are divided into 3 phases: 1) Dry (day 1-3) – sudden high temperature, headache, severe fatigue, muscle pain, scratchy throat. 2) Gastrointestinal – diarrhea, vomiting, stomach pain, dehydration, skin rash, impaired kidney and liver function. 3) Hemorrhagic and neurological – bleeding (stool, vomiting, eyes, nose, mouth, skin), nervous system – confusion, aggression, convulsions, shock, coma. Research into a vaccine, serum or chemotherapy is intensive. Since there is no specific therapy, it remains only isolation (quarantine according to all regulations) and so on. supportive therapy with rehydration, transfusion in case of bleeding, prevention of secondary infection and possibly life support devices. It is interesting that the term “quarantine”, which means 40 days (quaranta giorni) in isolation ie. the ship that had the plague was not allowed to approach during that period. That regulation was passed in 1377 in Rakuza (Dubrovnik). However, during outbreaks of plague in the 14th and 17th centuries, the population of Europe was almost halved. In my opinion, the most effective was the Ottoman Empire with very drastic measures – if a plague appeared, the house with the whole family was “sealed” (closed without entry or exit). If someone survived after a certain period, they were released, and the house was set on fire. Thus an epidemic was prevented, but occasional cases occurred every two or three decades. Of course, this drasticness is not necessary today, but it only indicates the need for strict isolation.
Mathematical models (logarithmic growth, stochastic, “game theory”, multiple logarithms, fields and artificial intelligence) are of great use for epidemic prediction, forecasting, for epidemiological institutions, insurances and the World Bank. The most important measures are suspicion (temperature, contacts), isolation (at least 21 days). Note: infected persons who do not yet have symptoms are not contagious (however, caution is required). For us, strict measures are very important in risky places – hospitals, airports, border crossings or transporters, tourist facilities. Even now, the government should foresee preventive measures: a National Security Council, a committee of experts, to define criteria for quarantine, a possible state of emergency and when (if necessary) to close the borders. All that should be decided – in advance. In the European media, a huge place is given to Ebola.
A provocative question in the direction of a “conspiracy theory”. These theories are very popular among the population and are a real “epidemic” on social networks and YouTube. Sometimes they may be right. Question: was this virus artificially and intentionally released into circulation? Congo is colossally rich in forests, waters, animals and minerals. It has the richest uranium (65 percent), for which many powers are fighting (for example, with all the wars, Iran has artificially reached a uranium concentration of 65 percent). Then – cobalt, coltan (chemical tantalite and columbite), gold, copper, lithium and diamonds. And the people are miserable, miserable (remember the movie “Blood Diamonds”). Services and companies of China, the United States and Russia and jihadist “rebels” are involved, manipulated by everyone. Earlier, Tito was also in the game through Lumumba, as well as Belgium, France, and the diamond billionaire Lev Leviev from Israel. So these “theories” of conspiracy “lay down” on the field. We know about covid that it is an artificial fragmentation of several viruses and recombination – to make a vaccine, but it somehow “escaped” from the laboratory (is it accidental or intentional?). All kinds of theories were put forward, some of them stupid to the sky – for example that “smoking killed the virus” or that “it is not a virus, but a poison released by airplanes”, etc. Well, that’s what awaits you now.
Will Ebola appear in our country? It is unlikely due to WHO measures, isolation, and few trips from us to Africa, but you never know if it will not be implanted from Europe and maybe the USA. Is this a disaster or a cataclysm? Disaster – yes, for Congo, maybe Africa, but cataclysm – no. So we expect it to be an epidemic (Congo and surroundings) but not a pandemic. If one case appears in our country, it is the same as a very dangerous epidemic. Should we be afraid? Caution yes, panic no! We must be alert. All relevant services should be ready and on alert. Especially where there is turnover and returns.
