The quote of US dollar began operations in the month of June in Colombia with a fall of more than 120 pesosupon closing the trading session with a price of 3,556.00 pesos.
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This downward movement was registered immediately after knowing the official results of the first round of the presidential elections held last Sunday, May 31, 2026.
According to the technical evaluations of the analysts, the direction that the exchange rate during the next three weeks will be conditioned by the flow of the surveys and the recomposition of partisan forces.
Juan David Ballén, director of Economy and Market at Aval Asset Management, described the mechanics that the exchange market under this situation: “from here to presidential second roundit is likely that the dollar increases its volatility depending on the evolution of the surveys and the perception of political risk.”
The analyst pointed out that “if the polls continue to show a greater probability of victory for Abelardo de la Espriellathe Colombian peso could maintain its trend of strengthening and the dollar continue to be pressured downwards. On the contrary, if Ivan Cepeda manages to close the gap or take advantage in the surveys, the market could reverse some of the recent optimism, generating upward pressures on the exchange rate“.
Institutional projections compiled by firms such as Global66 contemplate two specific paths after the June 21 vote: a De la Espriella’s triumph is linked to a bias structural appreciation of weight towards the area of the 3,400 to 3,500 pesoslevels that have not been recorded in the country since 2020, under the expectation of policies favorable to private investment and stability in extractive contracts.
In contrast, a Cepeda’s victory projects a initial depreciation of the local currency above 3,900 pesoswith the risk of returning to 4,200 pesos if the market perceives restrictive measures for the productive sectors.
Dollar vs. Colombian peso Photo:iStock
Pressures of the monetary policy and macroeconomic variables
Analysts explain that the political landscape coincided with external factors that influenced the internal dynamics.
He decline of the local dollar operated in parallel with a general bearish behavior in the Latin American coinspositive variations in the main stock markets in the world and an increase in international crude oil prices.
So far in 2026, the colombian peso accumulate one appreciation close to 9.5 percenthaving started at 4,050 pesos and hit a minimum of 3,560 pesos on January 22nd.
According to the Global 66 report, the regional statistics as of May 29, the Colombian currency led the performance against the dollar in the regionsurpassing mexican peso (5.6 percent), chilean peso (5.0 percent) and peruvian sun (3.5 percent), distancing itself from the Brazilian real, which depreciated 1.2 percent due to its internal fiscal uncertainty.
He background support of the local currency in front of the external shocks is associated with the guidelines of the monetary authority.
He Bank of the Republic has maintained by unanimous decision its monetary policy interest rate in it 11.25 percentresponding to a national inflation which was located in the 5.68 percent annuallyaccording to data issued by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE).
The report points out that to this technical environment is added the behavior of the hydrocarbon market, main source of foreign exchange for the country.
“He Brent crude oil price It is sold near 97 dollars per barrel due to the geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. During the year, the temporary closure of said crossing pushed the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $100, causing the dollar in Colombia would rise transiently to a recent maximum of 3,794 pesos on May 15, before a truce on April 17 caused an 11 percent drop in the WTI and stabilized the exchange rate in the 3,600 peso area,” he details.
In front of the exchange rate sustainability In the medium term, the Littio platform Treasury projected a planning range for the closing 2026 located between the 4,000 and 4,020 pesosanticipating a shift towards 4,100 pesos during the year 2027conditional on debt management and the implementation of tariffs.
According to experts, the risk premium is directly transferred to the exchange rate. Photo:iStock
Iván Torroledo, co-founder and CFO of Littio, analyzed the transfer of these variables to the economy saying that the weight ended May as one of the emerging currencies most pressuredand that is no coincidence.
“When a electoral process enters its definition section, the market stops operating on fundamentals and start operating on scenarios. What is relevant is not the political color of the result, but the degree of certainty it offers about the fiscal and monetary trajectory of the country. While that certainty does not arrive, the risk premium moves directly to the exchange rateand that is paid for by the pocket of any family that imports, travels, studies abroad or receives income from abroad,” said Torroledo.
According to the evaluations of the Bank of the West, the stages prior to the presidential elections usually cause a temporary slowdown in the flows of private investmentimpacting more directly on the regulated economic sectors.
David Cubides, chief economist of the bank, described the business conduct by noting: “the investors wait for clear signals about him fiscal management and the regulatory stability. This expectation usually translates into a temporary pause of strategic projects while the market gains visibility.”
The institution’s analyzes indicate that activities with increased sensitivity in view of regulatory modifications or plans energy transition they cover the infrastructure, construction, mining and hydrocarbons.
In contrast, the household spending shows stability and rebounds in the sectors of logistics, transportation and advertising due to the mobilization of political campaignswhile the structural reforms tend to slow down your process in the Congress of the Republic before the final votes.
For investment firms, key local variables that will define the medium-term trend focus on the appointment of the finance ministerthe relationship with the business community and the capacity of the new Government to maintain the investor confidence and the fiscal sustainability.
According to Littio, the evolution of the North American currency in Colombia It also interacts with the observed trends and the comparison of the currency with others global asset classeslike the euro, gold and bitcoin.
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