Two years ago, Uruguay’s main problem was, judging by public opinion measurements, security. In the most recent survey of The Observer and the Methods and Data Access Unit (Udelar), that same problem kept coming to mind (it is the most mentioned by 47% of the population). But when asked about the problem in the lives of the respondents, it escalates and comes out on top. “the cost of living”.
Does society demand more firm hand? Is it a question of increase in penalties? Or of alternative measures to prison? How much has the regulation of marijuana had an impact? Will it be necessary legalize cocaine?
two years ago The Observer began together with some academics from the University of the Republic—including Juan Pablo Ferreira of the Institute of Statistics—a search for a complement between journalism and academia to approach data with scientific rigor. Report accurately.
It was a complex bet that attempted to test methodologies that are being debated in the world as a (possible) solution to the high costs of face-to-face and telephone surveys and the low response rates. It involves a task for the technicians that, as explained every time the results are published, is more complex than one thinks. You can read it in any of the notes already published here.
It is not a panacea, it has its limitations, but in the two electoral rounds of 2024 these methods collided with the reality of the polls and were qualified (by the academy) in the top of the surveys that best “predicted” the results. And although even a broken clock gives the exact time twice a day, the serious work and rigorous care of anonymity and personal data allowed the tool to be gradually validated more and more (it has even been based on academic documents validated by peers using results).
Two years have passed, security is still the biggest problem identified, but this survey project has moved forward and now new academics are joining in, even from other universities, with the aim of taking advantage of statistical inferences to ask (and ask ourselves as a society) slightly different things.
You can be part of this edition and answer the new survey here. Of course, take a few minutes because at times they talk about feelings as deep as anger, heavy-handedness, and even extreme situations.
