He Uruguayan Institute of Meteorology (Inumet) projected that the quarter that includes May 2026 will be marked by temperatures above usual throughout the country and a irregular behavior of precipitationwith differences depending on the area.
The climate trends report corresponding to the period March-April-May indicates that the scenario for the last month of autumn will be influenced by neutral climatic conditions at a global levelafter the weakening of phenomena such as The Girl.
Temperatures above normal
According to the organization, there is a greater probability that temperatures will be located above historical values throughout the territory.
Specifically, Inumet assigns:
- 45% chance until the temperature is in the upper tertile (warmer than normal)
- 35% under normal conditions
- 20% to a stage below the usual
This implies that May could present milder days than expected for the season, consolidating a trend that was already observed in previous months.
Rains with uneven behavior
As for precipitation, the outlook will be more heterogeneous. The report divides the country into three regions:
- North: Normal to below normal rainfall is expected, with a greater probability of deficit
- Southwest: Rainfall is projected between normal and above normal
- Rest of the country: no clear biases are identified, so rainfall could be within historical values
This means that some areas could continue with low rainfall records, while others could experience a rebound.
Climate context
Inumet’s analysis indicates that in recent months there were negative rainfall anomalies in much of the countryespecially south of the Negro River, along with temperatures above normal.
At a global level, climate models indicate a transition towards neutral conditions of the ENSO phenomenonwith a high probability of being maintained during the fall and winter of 2026.
Metsul: possible advance of El Niño
The Metsul Meteorology analysis, however, warns that May will be marked by a greater frequency of cold days in the south of Brazil, bordering Uruguay, with episodes of polar air that could influence the region.
According to the agency, it is expected that cold nights, frost and the presence of fog increaseespecially from the second half of the month. Furthermore, it is projected that the phenomenon of El Niño begins to take hold between May and Junedriven by warming of the equatorial Pacific.
The report also points out that, although the most notable effects of El Niño would be seen in the second half of the year, its early development could begin to influence regional atmospheric dynamics.
