Sweden faces a worse scenario than the government previously described because of the war in Iran.
“We have now moved from the main scenario of limited impact to the scenario of significant impact on the Swedish economy,” says Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) at a press conference.
This means, among other things, the risk of higher inflation and lower GDP growth. Oil and gas prices have skyrocketed, although not to the most extreme levels, according to the Prime Minister.
Finance Minister Svantesson also takes a serious view of the situation:
It is the worst energy crisis in a very long time.
The government will therefore present an additional forecast for the Swedish economy at the beginning of May.
Last option
So far, the government has not given any concrete calls to Swedes to park their cars, work more from home or do anything else that would reduce fuel use. But nothing is being ruled out. Not even fuel rationing, although that should be seen as a last resort.
“State rationing is something that you absolutely want to avoid at all costs. That’s why we are working on measures to ensure that we don’t get there,” says Elisabeth Svantesson.
Kristersson and Svantesson do not want to discuss exactly what measures are being considered today.
“We are not planning any rationing at the moment, but we are prepared for it to happen. We will let you know in good time,” says Kristersson.
One of the uncertainties right now is the long-term future of shipping. The government is discussing with a number of countries how free passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be ensured.
Inviting parties
Svantesson notes that the price of oil is above $100 per barrel on Thursday. The total loss due to the strait being closed is estimated to be 13 million barrels of oil per day, according to the Finance Minister, who refers to figures from the energy agency IEA.
“It’s a huge amount and so far it’s not being compensated for by much else. With each passing day, this crisis is getting worse.”
The government has now invited various parties, such as SAS and the Swedish Farmers’ Association, to seek their views on disruptions to raw material flows.
Corrected: An earlier version of the text incorrectly described which scenario the government believes Sweden is in economically.
