The decline in thermal coal prices in Europe due to the loss of the war bonus has increased the attractiveness of the Turkish market. Quotes in Turkey for the first time since July 2023 exceeded European ones, including due to the refusal of Russian exporters to provide discounts. But the volume of coal exports from Russia to Turkey this year will be lower than last year, analysts say.
The cost of thermal coal 6000 kcal per kg in Turkey on CIF terms (the exporter bears all costs of delivering the goods to the port of shipment, its insurance, loading) by mid-April exceeded the European index for the first time since July 2023, according to a NEFT Research review. During the week of April 13–17, quotations on the Turkish market decreased by 3%, to $109.6 per ton. The European index (CIF ARA) fell by 7.7% to $96.2 per ton, losing the entire “war premium” due to the decline in the cost of gas and oil. This was the lowest value in the last four months, analysts say.
NEFT Research explains that prices in Turkey are affected by high freight costs and the refusal of Russian suppliers to provide discounts. Under these conditions, the cost of coal in the ports of the south and north-west remains stable. According to analysts, on the basis of FOB Baltika for the week of April 13–17, coal fell in price by 0.3%, to $74 per ton, quotes FOB Taman increased by 0.2%, to $85.7 per ton.
“Trade without discounts in Turkey has become possible due to locally tight demand, expensive freight and a limited choice of alternative suppliers, but this is more of a temporary window than a new norm,” says Oleg Emelchenkov, junior director for corporate ratings at the Expert RA agency. According to him, Russian exporters have a tactical opportunity to slightly increase supplies, but the growth potential is limited by the level of demand, competition and the high cost of logistics.
“The trend for now is to reduce exports to Turkey,” notes NEFT Research consulting partner Alexander Kotov. He explains that the main request comes from cement companies, and interest from Turkish thermal power plants is small, although it is possible that the summer season will lead to growth.
Expert in the mining and metallurgical industry at the Institute for Economics of Growth named after. P. A. Stolypin Pavel Gamov says that Russian coal exports to Turkey fell by 31% in January-February 2026, to 4 million tons. In 2025, he said, shipments increased by 34.6%, to 35 million tons, but a decline is expected in 2026. Pavel Gamov emphasizes that the possibility of selling without discounts to the Turkish market is also associated with a reduction in supplies from Colombia and South Africa. As a result, Russia’s share in Turkish coal imports reached 65.6% in 2026, the analyst says.
According to Oleg Emelchenkov, the effect of the Middle East conflict on the coal market turned out to be short-term, since it added primarily a temporary risk premium to prices, but did not change structural factors: weak and declining demand for coal in Europe, high reserves and reduced dependence on imports in Asia.
As Boris Krasnozhenov, head of the analytics department at Alfa Bank, notes, fears remain in the markets that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could become protracted, completely stop the export of Qatari LNG and cause an increase in gas prices on world markets – this factor could support coal prices in May-June. At the same time, the Turkish index, according to him, is less sensitive to speculation about a quick end to the conflict, since in Turkey there are no generation factors at nuclear power plants and renewable energy sources, which greatly influence coal prices in Europe.
Theoretically, Russian exporters, especially with access to ports in the south and north-west, can increase shipments to Turkey, taking advantage of the growing market conditions: if the CIF Turkey index remains above the CIF ARA, it is logical to redirect part of the volumes there, says Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. But, he adds, the growth potential is limited. According to the expert, the growth in shipments is hampered by a decrease in coal production in Russia, high transportation costs, and so on. Thus, Vladimir Chernov believes, Türkiye can only temporarily become a more marginal destination, especially for southern ports, but this does not solve the systemic problems of the industry.
