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    Home CARICOM CARICOM English Jamaica

    When the sand gets too hot – El Niño and the future of Caribbean sea turtles | In Focus

    The Analyst by The Analyst
    November 15, 2026
    in Jamaica
    When the sand gets too hot – El Niño and the future of Caribbean sea turtles | In Focus


    The release of 179 tiny hawksbill sea turtles into the Caribbean Sea is an unforgettable sight. On the north coast of Jamaica, in Oracabessa Bay, a group of visitors recently witnessed and participated in this remarkable conservation activity, organised by Sea Turtles Jamaica.

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    But behind this beautiful moment lies a much bigger environmental story, linking climate change, the current El Niño phenomenon and the future survival of one of the Caribbean’s most endangered marine species.

    An extraordinary conservation effort

    Founded in 2005 by Melvyn Tennant, Sea Turtles Jamaica was established in response to the widespread killing of nesting turtles and the removal of their eggs from local beaches. Since then, it has developed into an impressive community-based conservation operation, helping release more than 300,000 critically endangered hawksbill hatchlings into the ocean.

    The work is painstaking. Nesting mothers are protected when they come ashore, while their eggs are relocated to safer sections of the beach and guarded against predators, particularly mongooses. After approximately 50 to 70 days of incubation, the hatchlings are collected and released into the sea.

    The results are remarkable. According to the project, its protected approach can increase the chances of survival to adulthood to approximately one in 30 or 40 hatchlings, compared with an estimated one in 1,000 in the wild.

    Yet even these extraordinary efforts face a growing challenge: rising temperatures.

    When temperature determines sex

    Unlike humans, sea turtles do not have their sex determined by chromosomes at fertilization. Instead, it depends on the temperature at which their eggs incubate, a process known as Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination (TSD).

    Generally, cooler temperatures produce more males, while warmer conditions produce more females. As nesting beaches heat up, turtle populations risk becoming increasingly female-biased. If temperatures rise too high, they can disrupt the cycle of life.

    An extreme imbalance between males and females could eventually threaten the reproductive capacity and long-term survival of these populations.

    An additional El Niño warning

    This is where the current El Niño phenomenon becomes particularly relevant.

    El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that influences ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation, often bringing significant changes in temperature and rainfall. The 2026–2027 event is expected to be exceptionally strong, raising concerns about additional heat and other climate-related impacts across the Caribbean.

    At Oracabessa, Melvyn Tennant and his team are already monitoring this potential threat. Dedicated devices placed in the sand measure beach temperatures and help track changing nesting conditions.

    The concern is straightforward: El Niño could compound the effects of longer-term climate change, further increasing temperatures on nesting beaches and altering the conditions in which turtle eggs develop.

    The precise contribution of El Niño, as distinct from broader climate warming and local beach conditions, needs further scientific investigation. Nevertheless, the potential risks deserve attention. Monitoring sand temperatures, nesting patterns, incubation conditions and, where possible, hatchling sex ratios can help conservationists understand these changes and identify appropriate responses.

    From climate science to local action

    The challenges facing Caribbean sea turtles are a reminder that the impacts of climate change extend well beyond the more familiar concerns of water security, agriculture, food security, health and disaster preparedness. They also affect biodiversity, marine ecosystems and the survival of vulnerable species.

    Recognizing the need to address these interconnected challenges, UNESCO has launched a regional initiative focused on the implications of the 2026–2027 El Niño phenomenon for the Caribbean. Bringing together scientific knowledge, education, communication and practical preparedness, the initiative seeks to strengthen the region’s capacity to anticipate and respond to its effects.

    Sea Turtles Jamaica illustrates the importance of community-based conservation organizations. Their work on the ground can provide valuable observations of environmental changes and their consequences for vulnerable species.

    There is considerable scope to connect these efforts more systematically with universities, regional scientific institutions, meteorological services and climate researchers. Sharing temperature data and studying hatchling sex ratios could help build a much clearer picture of the risks facing Caribbean sea turtles.

    This is precisely the kind of connection UNESCO’s El Niño initiative seeks to encourage: bringing science closer to communities, supporting local knowledge and translating climate information into practical action.

    Protecting the next generation

    Watching baby hawksbill turtles make their first journey into the Caribbean Sea is a wonderful experience. It is also a reminder that protecting biodiversity requires more than occasional conservation activities. It demands sustained commitment, scientific observation and the ability to anticipate emerging threats.

    Melvyn Tennant and his team have demonstrated what determined local action can achieve. Their work has already given hundreds of thousands of hatchlings a better chance of survival.

    As the Caribbean prepares for the impacts of a potentially powerful El Niño, their experience raises an important question: how do we ensure that the beaches on which these ancient creatures depend remain suitable for the next generation?

    The future of Caribbean sea turtles may depend, in part, on something as seemingly simple as the temperature of the sand beneath our feet.

    Article courtesy UNESCO



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