BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Although oil
exports from the Persian Gulf countries had recovered to nearly
normal levels by the end of September 2026, a significant
resumption of LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE is not yet
expected.
This was stated in the Quarterly Gas Market Review by the Oxford
Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).
As noted in the report, the recovery of oil flows has not led to
similar expectations regarding LNG supplies: “QatarEnergy has
extended the force majeure clause on its contractual obligations to
certain customers through November.”
“At the same time, QatarEnergy remains confident in its ability
to quickly resume operations at the undamaged LNG production lines
at the Ras Laffan complex. However, the absence of a long-term
political agreement with Iran, whether between the U.S. and Iran or
between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran,
creates uncertainty regarding the safety and reliability of
shipments.
This factor is critical for LNG production, as storage capacity
for LNG is more limited than for oil, and there are no alternative
transportation routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz,” the report
states.
The institute notes that, in the absence of diplomatic progress,
the prospects for resuming LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf
countries before the start of winter remain uncertain.
The report emphasizes that, at the same time, future trends in
the gas market will depend on seasonal demand, the volume of LNG
shipments from the U.S., European production, and pipeline
imports.
OIES also points out that declining demand in Europe and
developing Asian countries, against a backdrop of high prices, is
already reflected in quarterly gas import data.
