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Internal federal documents offer insights into how Ottawa is assessing the economic fallout from the possibility of Alberta separating from Canada and becoming an independent state.
The documents from Finance Canada and the Justice Department also shed light on the consequences being considered from the uncertainty caused by Alberta separatism.
Finance Canada briefing notes, released to CBC News through access to information legislation, detail the federal government has been quietly studying the impact of a possible $18-billion fiscal shock, corporate head office flight and a mass exodus of Albertans to neighbouring provinces if Alberta exits the federation.
It also flags that federal pension laws are “flawed” and might not be up to the task of dealing with the possibility of Alberta exiting the Canada Pension Plan.
Much of the documents were redacted but still shed light on a range of outcomes the government is considering this fall.
The documents are dated June 2026.
Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum asks voters whether the province should remain in Canada or hold another vote at a future date to leave. Up until now much of the analysis of the economic hit of Alberta potentially separating has focused on the impact on the province instead of Canada as a whole.
Although polling indicates more Albertans want to remain in Canada than leave, the documents show even the possibility of a separation referendum could cause economic harm to Canada and the province.
Exodus of business headquarters
The analysis invokes the 1995 Quebec referendum which resulted in Quebecers voting to remain in Canada by a tight margin.
Data from bond and equity markets showed that vote coincided with “tightening in financial conditions both provincially and nationally,” it states.
Businesses, it notes, delayed “investment decisions pending greater clarity regarding future economic arrangement.”
Citing data from the Conseil du patronat du Québec during the late 1970s and early 1980s, it states that 263 major corporate head offices, including Sun Life, left Montreal.
“Lingering uncertainty in Alberta could trigger a similar exodus of headquarters, especially for non-resources sector companies,” the documents state.
Under the heading “interprovincial population outflow,” it notes that in 2021 Alberta saw nearly 17,500 net workers with post-secondary degrees move into the province — and suggests highly educated and highly skilled workers would leave an independent Alberta in large numbers.
CBC News asked Finance Canada for more details about the department’s work studying the impact of the Alberta referendum.
Instead, the Privy Council Office responded with an emailed statement which said the federal government is “conducting its own study of various third-party economic analyses” on the potential costs of Alberta’s separation from Canada.
“Alberta is an integral part of Canada and contributes significantly to the prosperity of Albertans and Canadians. Alberta is stronger as part of a united Canada,” wrote Privy Council spokesperson Mélany Gauvin.
15% of national GDP
The analysis is also a reminder of how much the Albertan economy provides for the rest of Canada.
Between 2022 and 2024, Alberta’s net fiscal contribution averaged roughly $18 billion annually.
With the province accounting for $475 billion in annual economic activity, Alberta represents 15 per cent of national GDP over the last decade.
Over the same time period the province also accounted for 31 per cent of Canada’s exports. Most of this came from energy.
With just weeks to go until the referendum, CBC News reached out to ranchers in southeast Alberta to ask how they’ll vote and what the end result could mean for their livelihoods.
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe has completed a similar analysis on the impact of separation. Tombe, who is part of the federalist group Lead Not Leave, notes that in 2024 Ottawa collected more than $19 billion than it spent in the province.
An independent Alberta would get to keep that money but Tombe’s report found it would be quickly eaten up by NATO defence commitments, expenses related to assuming federal operations and falling revenues from a shrinking economy.
In an interview with CBC News, Tombe said although Canada stands to lose a lot from Alberta leaving, the real loser would be his province.
“Without doubt, it would be Alberta that would experience the largest economic disruption as a result of separation,” Tombe said.
Canada Pension Plan impacts
Tombe has also done some number crunching on the impact of Alberta exiting the Canada Pension Plan.
The CPP was established in 1966 as a measure to provide retirement income to older Canadians and to make up for gaps in private pensions.
The plan has opt-out provisions and a formula to transfer assets, but the internal document notes the federal government’s independent overseer of the CPP, the chief actuary, is concerned about the wording and payout formula set out in the federal law that governs the pension plan.
“In addition to the legislation being open to interpretation, the chief actuary has indicated that the formula it sets out is flawed,” the documents state.
When the CPP and the legislation that came with it was set up in the 1960s, its assets were invested in provincial bonds.
But now the fund is invested in infrastructure like airports, equities and other global bonds — making divesting Alberta’s share complicated.
“I would anticipate that if a province were to want to exercise their right to withdraw that the Supreme Court would have to make a ruling on what the language in the act ultimately means,” Tombe said.
