A rise in oil prices on Thursday is sending worries about inflation and yields in the bond market higher, erasing some of the relief the United States Treasury Department created the day before. The higher yields and a big drop for Walmart helped drag the United States stock market lower.
The S&P 500 fell 0.7 per cent and is on track for a fourth loss in the five days since setting its all-time high last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 612 points, or 1.2 per cent, as of 2:28 p.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.1 per cent lower.
The bond market remains the centre of the action after yields charged higher through the summer on worries about high inflation, gargantuan government debts and other factors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a move on Wednesday, that jolted financial markets, to at least double the size of his department’s planned purchases of longer-term Treasurys from September 9 through to November 4.
That helped push yields down after the 10-year Treasury’s yield had hit its highest level in more than a year and the 30-year yield got back to where it was in 2007, before the Great Recession sent yields towards zero worldwide. It is a big deal because high yields slow the economy by raising interest payments for people, companies and the government, and they can undercut prices for stocks and other investments.
But analysts had cautioned that the effect may be short-lived, given how small the purchases are relative to the overall size of the Treasury market and how they do not fix the fundamental concerns of investors that had driven up yields. Plus, more signals arrived quickly to push worries higher.
The United States government’s debt topped US$40 trillion on Wednesday, a staggering record that arrived just months after the national debt first blew past the US$39-trillion mark in April, because Washington continues to spend far more money than it brings in.
And on Thursday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude climbed two per cent to US$93.41 as uncertainty continues about when the war with Iran will allow oil tankers to freely exit the Persian Gulf again. President Donald Trump threatened Iran with “the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY” late Wednesday but provided few details.
That helped push the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.70 per cent from 4.65 per cent late Wednesday. It is almost back to its 4.71 per cent level from late Tuesday, before the Treasury Department made its announcement.
A couple encouraging reports on the United States economy also helped push up longer-term Treasury yields, which move with expectations for the economy and inflation in coming years. One said fewer United States workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than economists expected, while another said manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region appears to be much stronger than expected.
On Wall Street, Walmart was one of the heaviest weights on the S&P 500 and fell 9.3 per cent even though it reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Investors focused instead on how an important underlying measure of revenue growth at its stores slowed again. Its forecast for profit in the current quarter also fell short of analysts’ expectations.
Given its massive size, Walmart offers a look at how shoppers are doing across the United States. A surprisingly weak update on sales at United States retailers overall last month had raised worries that shoppers may be succumbing to pressure from high inflation and a job market that may be looking less solid.
Advance Auto Parts tumbled 26.1 per cent after the retailer reported weaker revenue for the latest quarter, even though its profit topped expectations. Chief Executive Officer Shane O’Kelly said that “tighter household budgets constrained spending more than we anticipated, especially during the last four weeks of the quarter”.
Spending by United States consumers is the main engine of the economy, and a pullback by them could exacerbate what is already a slowdown in growth for the economy.
A pullback could also mean a double whammy for travel companies, which would see fewer bookings when they have to pay higher prices for fuel. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell 4.4 per cent, while United Airlines sank 3.7 per cent and American Airlines lost 2.3 per cent.
AP
Helping to keep Wall Street’s losses in check was Deere, which reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It rose 5.7 per cent as the company said order trends indicate the agriculture equipment business looks set to accelerate after this year.
Oil companies also rose with the gains for crude prices. Exxon Mobil added 1.6 per cent, and ConocoPhillips climbed 3.1 per cent.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe following a stronger finish in Asia.
South Korea’s Kospi soared 5.9 per cent for one of the world’s biggest moves after the two tech titans that dominate its market, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, jumped. Such swings have become more common for Seoul’s market, which has borne the brunt of rising and falling worries that winning stocks in the artificial-intelligence boom may have shot too high.
AP
