If he drops out by next Monday, the Maine Democratic Party will get to choose his replacement. It would have until July 27 to select a new nominee, and my colleague Reid Epstein reports that Maine Democrats are considering several means of doing so, from a pop-up convention to a statewide caucus. Most of the likeliest Democratic replacements aren’t especially well known statewide or nationally, but in this political environment Ms. Collins would be in jeopardy against any one of them.
On paper, this is a race Democrats should win. Yes, Ms. Collins has won many times before, despite Maine’s Democratic lean, but that does not mean she should be expected to defy political gravity forever.
Over the last decade, all of the great electoral over-performers have watched the nation’s polarizing politics gradually pull their standing back to earth, and drag congressional election results into closer alignment with presidential results. This is even true for Ms. Collins: Her nine-point victory in 2020, while impressive, was her smallest re-election margin. There’s every indication that her support has continued to erode over the last six years. A majority of likely voters said they had an unfavorable view of her in the latest Times/Siena poll. That would not usually be enough for a Republican to win a Democratic-leaning state.
And a midterm election ought to make it especially challenging for Ms. Collins to hold on. Historically, midterms tend to be a referendum on the party in power, and Maine likely voters said they preferred Democratic to Republican control of the Senate by 12 points in the last Times/Siena poll. Of course, Ms. Collins was still quite competitive against Mr. Platner, but that was at least partly because of Mr. Platner’s weaknesses. After all, a majority of voters said they also had an unfavorable view of Mr. Platner, even before the latest allegation.
And while Ms. Collins may no longer be a political juggernaut, she was very well suited to capitalize on the liabilities of a candidate like Mr. Platner. She was not loved, but she was broadly acceptable, according to our polling: She was viewed as moderate, moral, experienced and effective by clear majorities of voters. She may have been a particularly good fit for women and especially older women, who may have been repelled by Mr. Platner’s conduct. Women 65 and over backed Ms. Collins by three points in the Times/Siena poll, even though those same respondents, when asked how they voted in 2024, collectively backed Kamala Harris by 28 points.
