Having gotten over the horror of the offer by Antigua and Barbuda government to accept 10 deportees, I decided to take a deeper look at the Antigua and Barbuda government’s position on the US government’s proposal to accept deportees.
I have concluded that either:
A) Antigua and Barbuda has made a brilliant negotiating move or;
B) Antigua and Barbuda has exposed this country to potential doom.
First of all, I suspect that signing the MOU puts a gag order on our government with respect to sharing the full text with the people of this country. I question why, such matter of national concern would be initially conducted under the cloak of secrecy. Had it not been for another country exposing this issue, Antiguan and Barbudan’s would probably not have been the wiser.
The signing of the MOU is probably the reason why no government appears to have the cahoonas to share the actual document to date. For people like me who prefer to come to our own conclusions, not seeing the MOU is unsettling.
My central question is why did we even need to negotiate with the US on this issue at all? What did they have over us that we could not ignore their request? I have not heard an answer to that question.
I do accept that negotiating at this level does require some degree of guardedness in order not to jeopardize the talks.
Nonetheless, it is my opinion that the Antigua and Barbuda government poorly handled the public disclosure and did so in a manner that obliterated what little credibility remained.
The public is justified to be up in arms over what the government is openly conceding: i.e. our sovereignty and national security, among other things.
I have decided to more closely analyze the Antigua and Barbuda position to see what are possible practical outcomes.
Let me recap the position of the Antigua and Barbuda government for your convenience, below:
1. Willingness to engage the United States on this matter in a spirit of friendship and cooperation;
2. Will not accept an on-going monthly programme to transfer deportees to Antigua and Barbuda;
3. Will consider proposed cases only on a case-by-case basis and in the exercise of its complete sovereign discretion.
4. Only a limited number of persons, not exceeding ten in 2026, could be contemplated, and only if the conditions set out by Antigua and Barbuda are satisfied in writing;
5. No person may be accepted unless eligibility, documentation, funding, settlement responsibility, legal status, and return arrangements are all clearly secured in advance;
6. Reserves the right to refuse any proposed person, to reject any unapproved or improperly documented arrival, and to suspend or discontinue any arrangement in its own judgement.
7 No international organization or third party will be engaged on Antigua and Barbuda’s behalf until the substantive terms of any arrangement have been settled to the Government’s satisfaction.
8. The above remains unless the Parliament of Antigua and Barbuda resolves differently.
I deduced that Antigua and Barbuda is attempting maintain a working relationship with the US and is deliberately taking a path to not “antagonized” the US.
It appears that the Antigua and Barbuda government is also attempting to create a stalemate in the negotiations.
Antigua and Barbuda aims to achieve this stalemate by giving the “appearance” that it is prepared to concede the demands of the US by publicly accepting deportees but with the understanding that the US would reciprocate with concessions in the form of:
a) re-instatement of visa access; b) no automatic, unlimited process for transfer of deportees;
c) deportees must be vetted with Antigua and Barbuda reserving the right to accept each deportee on a case by case basis;
d) no third party international organization involvement.
Antigua and Barbuda’s strategy is predicated on the assumption that the “ego” of the United States government would NEVER allow them to be seen as giving in to demands from a so-called “sh!!-hole” country like Antigua and Barbuda nor allowing the US government’s decisions/choices to be subject to the Antigua and Barbuda’s government’s scrutiny and approval.
Moreover, the US government cannot rightfully claim that Antigua and Barbuda has not been cooperative and unwilling to “assist” the US in this endeavour.
Admittedly, having to progressively force information out of the Antigua and Barbuda government on this serious national issue has not imbued me with confidence.
If the US “ego” theory prevails, then this is a brilliant move which would create a deadlock until the current Administrations changes. And from my observation of this US administration’s modus operandi, this “ego” theory looks like a very plausible tactic.
However, if the gamble of the US “ego” theory fails then Antigua and Barbuda cannot backdown on it public offer to accept 10 deportees in the first instance.
My greatest discomfort with the Antigua and Barbuda government is its willingness to experiment and unilaterally gamble with the lives of the people of Antigua and Barbuda.
I guess that we will have to wait and see.
Whether my analysis has uncovered a deliberate or fortuitous strategy is yet to be seen.
Once again, if we achieve a stalemate then we would have been successful under the circumstances.
Otherwise, if Antigua and Barbuda miscalculated, our situation would be tantamount to man who has a gambling problem, pledging the family home and losing it, rendering his wife and children homeless
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