Opinion
US President Donald Trump has damaged most American alliances and split NATO. “A divide has opened up between Europe and the US,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in February. The pre-existing global order does not exist, he said.
Or, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk put it when speaking of Trump: “With friends like that, who needs enemies?” Unfortunately, we allies of the US get both. We get Trump’s madcap America and a group of hardened enemies as well.
While the US alliance system is splintering, another team has been forming. It has received scant attention so far. There’s a good chance you haven’t heard of it. It goes by the acronym CRINKs – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
“It’s about how they assist each other to fight wars,” says Lavina Lee, director of the foreign policy and defence program at the University of Sydney’s US Studies Centre. “The world is becoming extremely dangerous because these countries are assisting each other to fight wars.”
The four were grouped under the name CRINKs nine years ago because of their shared goal of challenging the US-led order. Their co-operation is today intensifying on the battlefields of Ukraine and Iran. A pair of US scholars calls it a “generational challenge”.
“This is a group bent on upheaval,” writes Andrea Kendall-Taylor, an official who worked for the US National Intelligence Council under Barack Obama and Trump, and Richard Fontaine, who advised the late Republican senator John McCain on foreign policy. Indeed, they call the four the “axis of upheaval”.
“Their combined economic and military capacity, together with their determination to change the way the world has worked since the end of the Cold War, make for a dangerous mix.”
The CRINKs had something of a coming-out parade in September. Xi Jinping hosted Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un together in Beijing, among others, to review a major military display. It was the first time that the four had got together. Xi portrayed it as a defiance of the US and its allies: “The house rules of a few countries should not be imposed upon others.”
On hand for the occasion, among other “useful idiots” for the Chinese Communist Party, were Victoria’s ex-premier Dan Andrews and NSW ex-premier Bob Carr, though Carr didn’t appear at the military parade.
How are the CRINKs coming together to support Iran in its war with the US and Israel? A few examples.
First, Beijing reportedly broke sanctions last year to ship thousands of tonnes of chemical ingredients to make solid propellant for missiles to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to The Wall Street Journal. This would be enough to fuel about 1000 Iranian missiles, depending on type and size.
Second, the Chinese regime has given Iran access to its proprietary BeiDou satellite positioning system. This is Beijing’s alternative to the US-controlled GPS. Access to BeiDou’s sophisticated military-grade navigation helped Tehran target US, Israeli and Gulf Arab arms and infrastructure.
Third, as London’s Financial Times reported last week, “Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East.” Logs showed that the Iranians also used the satellite as part of a successful strike on five US Air Force refuelling planes on a tarmac in Saudi Arabia.
Fourth, in another revelation last week, CNN reported that China was preparing to send air defence systems to Iran in coming weeks. These were to be shoulder-mounted, heat-seeking, so-called Manpad missiles, according to the network.
Fifth, around 90 per cent of Iran’s oil exports go to China, mostly via clandestine networks to avoid US-led sanctions. This means that, depending on the year and the oil price, an estimated one-third to a half of Iranian government revenues are derived from China. The solvency of the Iranian state, therefore, depends heavily on revenue from oil sales to China.
Similarly, the other two CRINK countries also depend on China to stay afloat. Russia’s fiscal viability has depended on selling oil and gas to China ever since the start of its invasion of Ukraine. North Korea, which can’t afford to import energy at market prices, depends on discounted oil supplies from China to keep its economy running.
What about Russia? How is Putin supporting Iran against Trump’s war? Russia for decades has been the main supplier of weaponry and intelligence to Iran. But, under pressure in its own war against Ukraine, Moscow hasn’t managed any substantial force immediately.
However, it’s doing what it can. Within a week of the outbreak of the Iran war, the Washington Post reported that Russia was helping Iran target US forces in the Middle East: “Russia has passed Iran the locations of US military assets, including warships and aircraft.”
When Trump was asked about whether Putin was helping Iran to kill Americans, he said: “I think he may be helping them a bit, yeah.“ But he quickly deflected to equivalence: “He probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine. They do it, and we do it.”
When pressed, he dismissed “stupid questions” and refused to elaborate. He wouldn’t want to put his pal Vladimir in an awkward position.
Then there’s North Korea’s aid to Iran. “You’ve probably been surprised by how robust Iran’s missile technology has proved to be,” says Lee. “That all came from North Korea. All Iran’s short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles have been improved over time by North Korean assistance.”
Kim Jong-un has even used the N-word. If Israel used nuclear weapons against Iran, then Kim would launch a nuclear strike against Israel, he promised.
The CRINK help to Iran will continue, predicts Lee, “even if there’s a ceasefire. China, Russia and North Korea will use any ceasefire to help Iran rebuild its missile and drone capability. We are definitely going to hear more about the CRINKs; I don’t think this is over.”
So the world now has an authoritarian axis of upheaval. And Donald Trump, too.
Peter Hartcher is political and international editor. His federal politics column can be read in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age each Saturday.
Peter Hartcher is political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via email.
