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    The Democratic Incumbents Most at Risk of Losing to Progressive Primary Challengers in 2026

    The Analyst by The Analyst
    July 1, 2026
    in United States
    The Democratic Incumbents Most at Risk of Losing to Progressive Primary Challengers in 2026


    It is proving to be a dangerous primary election cycle for establishment House Democrats, as a wave of progressive energy has combined with an outsider fervor to claim a string of incumbents.

    The latest to fall was Representative Diana DeGette of Colorado, a 68-year-old incumbent running for a 16th term, who was defeated by Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old democratic socialist, in a primary on Tuesday.

    Her loss came after two incumbent Democratic congressmen in New York, Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, fell to progressive challengers a week ago. Overall, eight House incumbents, including five Democrats, have lost primaries during the midterms, an unusually high tally, said Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

    Their losses come at a moment when left-wing energy has also helped to topple establishment Democratic candidates in races for other offices. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado fell short in his bid for governor, and Gov. Janet Mills of Maine gained little traction in her campaign for Senate. Representative Haley Stevens of Michigan, a Democrat running for Senate with support from her party’s Senate leadership, trails a progressive candidate in the polls, though the race is far from over.

    In the House, here are some of the Democrats who are at risk of joining the list of fallen incumbents.

    Shri Thanedar of Michigan

    Mr. Thanedar, 71, a second-term congressman from Detroit known for regularly introducing impeachment resolutions against the president, is facing a challenge from State Representative Donavan McKinney, 34. Mr. McKinney has displayed fund-raising strength and is supported by Senator Bernie Sanders, the Vermont progressive. Black leaders have also rallied behind his candidacy. Mr. Thanedar is Indian American, and his victory in 2022 has meant that Detroit, a majority Black city, has not had a Black representative in Washington. Mr. Thanedar argued that voters in the district were most interested in candidates who could improve their lives. “People know my struggles,” he said in an interview, adding that he had come to the United States as an immigrant with little money. “Their focus really is: ‘Solve my problems.’” The primary is Aug. 4.

    Wesley Bell of Missouri

    Mr. Bell, a 51-year-old former prosecutor, is trying to hold onto his St. Louis-area seat two years after he ousted an incumbent progressive, Cori Bush. Mr. Bell, who managed a Republican’s campaign for the House two decades ago, was lifted in 2024 by spending by pro-Israel groups. Ms. Bush, 49, is running this cycle to reclaim the seat, and the race has focused largely on the question of support for Israel. “AIPAC, I’m coming to tear your kingdom down,” Ms. Bush said after she lost two years ago, referring to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel lobbying group. Mr. Bell’s campaign argues that the voters are more focused on President Trump and that Ms. Bush does not work well with other Democrats. The primary is Aug. 4.

    Ed Case of Hawaii

    Mr. Case, 73, a moderate Democrat who took office in 2019 and previously served in the early 2000s, is trying to fend off a progressive challenge from State Senator Jarrett Keohokalole, 42, who is running on a message of generational change. Mr. Case’s campaign has made appeals to patriotism and unity, and he casts himself as a defender of democracy. The primary is Aug. 8.

    John Larson of Connecticut

    Mr. Larson, 77, is running for a 15th term serving Connecticut. He is facing a spirited challenge from former Mayor Luke Bronin of Hartford, 47, a progressive and a former Navy intelligence officer who is backed by the Connecticut Democratic Party and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Mr. Larson has said he is running for another term to support a bill he has long championed that would expand Social Security benefits to all seniors. The primary is Aug. 11.

    Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida

    Ms. Wasserman Schultz, 59, who is in her 11th term and is a former chair of the Democratic National Committee, has landed in a contentious primary after Republican redistricting eliminated her South Florida seat. Now Ms. Wasserman Schultz, who is white, is running in a historically Black district; the field includes the rapper Luther Campbell, 65, also known as Uncle Luke; Elijah Manley, 27, an educator and a progressive; and Dale V.C. Holness, a former Broward County mayor, all of whom are Black. The primary is Aug. 18.

    Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts

    Mr. Lynch, a 71-year-old Boston Democrat, is running for a 14th term. He faces Patrick Roath, a 39-year-old Boston progressive who is running on a message of generational change. Mr. Roath, a lawyer, has called for an end to what he describes as “wait-your-turn” politics. Mr. Lynch has pointed to the value of seniority in the House. The primary is Sept. 1.





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