Australia’s weather bureau warned on Tuesday that an El Niño weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify in the second half of 2026 to become one of the strongest in seven decades.
Forecasters expect the stronger weather event to bring excessive rains to the Americas and hot, dry conditions in Asia, where crop planting is already being disrupted, raising concerns about food supplies in the world’s most populous region.
Sea surface temperatures in the region exceeded El Niño thresholds, and atmospheric indicators all aligned with the phenomenon, the Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.
“Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific,” it added.
“Around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.”
Scientists have said climate change will supercharge the effects of this year’s El Niño.
A periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, El Niño is linked to less rainfall in winter and spring, particularly on Australia’s east coast and higher southern daytime temperatures, the bureau said.
The weather phenomenon is particularly damaging to Australia as it affects agricultural production in the country, which ranks among the world’s largest exporters of wheat, sugar, and beef.
The last El Niño experienced in Australia from 2023 to 2024 caused the driest three-month period on record.
One of the strongest such events, occurring in 2015 and 2016, brought widespread drought and reduced grain and oilseed output.
The Environment and Climate Change portal is produced in cooperation with the Goldman Sonnenfeldt School of Sustainability and Climate Change at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev. The Jerusalem Post maintains all editorial decisions related to the content.
