The final stretch of the second presidential round in Colombia has been marked by a paradox: although the polls continue to favor the right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriellaboth his team and that of the leftist Ivan Cepeda agree on the same reading: The race is much closer than the polls reflect.
A few days before the June 21 elections, the main concern in the campaign From Espriella It is not a collapse in the polls, but the risk that the perception of a guaranteed victory ends up demobilizing their own voters.
Sources close to the candidacy maintain that There is concern about the participation of thousands of Colombians who are outside the country accompanying the national team during the World Cup in North America. According to calculations from his political environment, Nearly 80,000 citizens abroad could influence the final result.
“Polls do not win elections,” has been the message repeated by campaign leaders and strategists, who seek to avoid any feeling of triumphalism among their supporters.
The advantage that offers no guarantees
Abelardo de la Espriella maintains an advantage in the polls, but his campaign fears that overconfidence will reduce participation.
From Espriella reached the second round with a difference close to three percentage points over Cepedaequivalent to more than 630,000 votes. However, the behavior of the electorate in this final stage generates uncertainty.
More than three million voters who supported other candidates in the first round still represent an electoral flow that can be redistributed. Added to this are hundreds of thousands of citizens who voted blank and a possible increase in citizen participationa phenomenon that has already had a decisive impact on the 2022 presidential elections.
The first signals from the vote abroad have also set off some alarms within the conservative campaign. Reports from supporters and local leaders suggest a less favorable turnout than that observed during the first roundwhich has reinforced calls to increase electoral mobilization.
The candidate’s response has been to insist on the need to redouble efforts and maintain the intensity of the campaign until the last day.
Cepeda is committed to mobilization and the undecided vote
Iván Cepeda intensified his digital strategy and is committed to mobilizing young people, undecided and absent voters in the first round.
On the opposite sidewalk, the panorama is different. The campaign of Iván Cepeda does not face the problem of overconfidence, but rather the challenge of closing a gap that still appears significant in most measurements..
After a first week marked by internal adjustments and differences with the president Gustavo Petrothe senator’s team has sought to revitalize its strategy, especially in the digital sphere.
The candidate has increased his presence on social networks and has adopted closer and less institutional communication formats. Its environment ensures that interaction indicators on platforms such as TikTok have shown considerable growth in recent daysapproaching levels that were previously clearly dominated by the rival campaign.
In addition to the digital strategy, student sectors, artists, social movements and youth groups have promoted support initiatives that seek to increase participation among those who did not vote in the first round.
The bet of Cepeda is especially concentrated in rural areas, indigenous communities, young people and citizens who traditionally register higher levels of abstention.
The center, the great electoral spoils
Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda reach the final stretch of the campaign with opposite strategies and a closer dispute than expected.
Both campaigns agree that the key to the election could be found in moderate voters.
Aware of the doubts it generates in centrist sectors, Cepeda has tried to distance himself from some positions of the Petro government. Among the most relevant movements is its explicit support for the results of the first round and the formal suspension of the initiative to convene a Constituent Assemblya proposal that generated concern among part of the undecided electorate.
For its part, From Espriella has maintained a strategy focused on simple messages, a solid organizational structure and a strong presence on social networks. He has also reinforced the international projection of his candidacy through public endorsements from figures such as Argentine President Javier Milei and US President Donald Trump.
An open ending
Although campaign leaders From Espriella they assure handle internal studies that give it an advantage greater than that reflected by some surveysrecognize that the real difference could be smaller.
The intensity of the messages, the accusations of electoral irregularities and the constant calls for mobilization show a reality shared by both sides: no one considers the election resolved.
Three days before the final vote, the outcome remains open. The battle for the undecided, the abstentionists and the voters of the center could end up defining who will occupy the Casa de Nariño for the next four years.
