The price of a barrel of oil closed higher in a context of uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle East and the statements by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, against Iran.
Precisely, the barrel of Brent oil rose 0.68% to US$109.77 and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.78%, closing at US$112.41. This last marker reached US$114 during the day.
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Since the end of March, the price of crude oil has been on an increasing trend, surpassing the US$100 barrier.
Arturo Vásquez, Gerens Research Director, explained that this high price of crude oil occurs in a context exacerbated by the conflict in the Middle East.
Precisely, Trump extended his ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “The entire country could be destroyed in one night and that could be tomorrow night,” the president said at a press conference. As we remember, 20% of the world’s oil production transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Vásquez adds that the threats also include a possible attack by the United States and Israel on Iran’s energy infrastructure, as has already occurred in previous weeks.
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“The issue is not going to be resolved in the next two weeks. That is why the price of oil has reacted, because it is not known what is going to happen, if it is going to escalate or if the oil tankers are going to pass,” he added.
In turn, Eduardo Ramos, director at Óptima Energy Peru, pointed out that the price of oil has been oscillating between US$100 and US$112 in recent days due to Trump’s dissonant messages regarding ending the conflict and threatening Iran.
For his part, Erick García, former general director of Hydrocarbons of the Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem), considered that there is also a provocation for the conflict to continue.
“They are pushing until they reach a limit and from there they are going to look for a solution. If the Strait of Hormuzthere are calculations that in two weeks there could be shortages in many countries, it would be very strong in the world economy. They are going to have to solve it, because if not NATO is going to have to get involved and more countries too,” he said.
Added to this is the decision of a plan approved by the Iranian Parliament that establishes a toll system for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a unilateral decision of the Persian country, commented Vásquez.
Vásquez pointed out that there are investment banks like JP Morgan that predict an increase in the price of oil if the conflict in the Middle East worsens.
“I think that the war situation is going to worsen to the extent that USA does not achieve its objectives and one of them is that the Strait of Hormuz has free navigation,” he considered.
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Thus, according to JP Morgan, on Thursday the barrel of oil could be between US$120 and US$130 with the flow of trade disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz. There is a risk of it exceeding US$150 per barrel if this disruption continues by mid-May.
On the other hand, the application of a toll through Hormuz could set the tone for the trend of the international oil price, Ramos indicated.
In addition, he noted that Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, had indicated to the BBC that a “global recession” could be caused if the barrel of oil reached US$150.
“It is total uncertainty for the energy market as well as for the markets that rely on energy,” he commented.
For his part, García considered that a mechanism of hopeful and threatening messages has been given so that the price of crude oil decreases and rises.
If the price reaches levels above US$130, US$140 or US$150, that would cause various countries to take a position regarding the war conflict in Middle Easthe added.
Furthermore, he maintained that if there is a toll in the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict is resolved, this additional payment would be absorbed in the price of crude oil and by the end users.
