What do we do when artificial intelligence gives us more free time? – DiePresse.com

Humans will probably not be completely replaceable. Where is humane use required?

People remain in demand when it comes to ethical issues, as well as personal advice or leadership decisions in teams. In art, it is also people who create new things.

However, AI is being used even in the creative economy. How can people still score points?

Consider the introduction of earlier technologies, such as the Internet. For example, the development presented traditional advertising companies with major challenges, but at the same time offered new sales channels to young advertisers. The industry ultimately repositioned itself. The start of AI technology will initially also lead to major upheavals in many sectors of the economy and thus in the world of work. In the long term, new jobs will be created, for example in the application and maintenance of AI. It is important that education and retraining keep pace with the transformation. Those countries that invest in it will benefit.

By using AI, many companies want to produce more efficiently and quickly. Will global economic output ultimately increase?

I am cautious with such GDP forecasts. The question remains how a society deals with the increases in productivity and the free time gained as a result of the use of AI. In any case, the greatest positive effects can be expected in the USA and Asia, those regions where there is a lot of investment in technology and the necessary infrastructure. Europe also has potential, but still needs to significantly increase its investments. It also remains to be seen what consequences the stricter regulations will have on developments.

The EU Artificial Intelligence Act from 2024 is intended to prevent the proliferation of AI applications. Is the EU slowing down potential here or is it perhaps setting a necessary precedent?

A clever regulation creates legal certainty, protects consumers and can therefore also offer a competitive advantage if it creates trust. The approach of the regulation is clear: the higher the risk of the AI ​​application is assessed, the stricter the security standards. However, since AI developments are only just beginning, new laws are also causing discussion. At this year’s industrial trade fair in Hanover, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz advocates for a relaxation of European AI regulation and a possible exception for industrial AI.

Solid consumer protection could still become more important as AI increasingly influences consumer behavior. What important trends do you see?

Increases in efficiency through the use of AI could lead to more free time. The corresponding industry sector should benefit from this, depending on what people decide to do. There is also the following aspect: product prices are increasingly being designed individually. Think about personalized online newspaper subscriptions with tiered prices for readers depending on the subscription model. The prices on online travel sites are also partly influenced by internet search behavior through an AI algorithm.

The developments will probably lead to economic changes overall. What do you expect?

If such models become widely accepted, the way inflation is measured may also have to be designed differently. If consumers pay individual prices for their services, the shopping baskets used to measure price changes will have to be put together differently.

AI also remains in focus on the stock market. At the beginning of the year, when some established US technology giants announced investments of around $700 billion for this year, doubts arose about their profitability. Are we at the end of another technology boom?

Just a year ago, investors reacted positively to AI news. But there is now a shift from investments in less capital-intensive to very capital-intensive business models. Simply developing the necessary software is not enough. It also requires hardware, such as semiconductors and data centers. However, hardware expansion is increasingly taking place at the expense of cash flow stocks, which is why the market has recently reacted with skepticism to the high investment plans and is taking a closer look at whether the high expenditure will be profitable. The reluctance was also seen in the bond markets.

To what extent?

Numerous technology companies have issued bonds in recent years. They were well received by investors; after all, the balance sheets of large issuers are solid. But in recent weeks, interest rate premiums have risen and become more similar to those of issuers with comparable credit ratings, a signal that bond investors are increasingly skeptical about the increasing investment amounts.

Investments in energy will also have to increase because data centers consume a lot of electricity. This causes a lot of debate as to whether there are sufficient energy sources. Could AI be reaching its limits for this reason alone?

In fact, this aspect is not limited to the topic of energy. Such buildings also require a lot of water for cooling. The increasing need for resources can lead to conflicts in the short term, especially in those regions where they are not sufficiently available. Accordingly, numerous companies are already working on solutions, such as expanding their own photovoltaic systems on the roofs of data centers and recycling cooling water instead of discharging it. This also offers investors new opportunities.

Recently, some software companies have also been under pressure. There is growing concern that AI agents will take over the programming. Many of the companies have received money from the private credit market and thus directly from large investors and fund companies, with payment defaults increasing. Is there a crisis looming?

The concern is unfounded. Payment defaults across the entire private credit market were recently just one percent. Recently the rate has risen towards two percent, but is still well below the long-term average of four percent. In the medium term, payment defaults are likely to rise again to this level. The payment defaults are not only due to the harsher environment in the technology sector, although loans to companies in the software sector make up around 20 percent of the asset class.

What else can be attributed to the increasing number of failures?

Basically, many smaller companies that rely on private credit are increasingly feeling the effects of increased interest rates and the more difficult economic environment. Careful project selection is even more important. In any case, we see no systemic risk for either the software industry or the private credit segment as a whole.

Many necessary components for the technology world are shipped globally. However, it appears that global trade is facing increasing hurdles due to conflicts in geopolitics and trade politics. What do you expect?

Trade is becoming increasingly regional, a circumstance that certainly has advantages. Supply chains are becoming shorter and therefore a lot more stable. There are also regional initiatives, for example to secure important resources. Take this as an example EU Critical Raw Materials Act. The law came into force in 2024 and is intended to secure the supply of critical raw materials for green and digital technologies, for example by promoting raw material extraction within the EU.