The undecided are always best, emphasizes Jonas Hinnfors at the University of Gothenburg. But the figures in the Statistics Sweden party sympathy survey look undeniably dark for the Liberals. The party is not gaining ground and is registering just 2.5 percent. This is despite recent developments on the Sweden Democrats in-government issue and the fact that the party has presented a number of substantive policy proposals.
“It’s hard to see what else they could do; nothing has changed in public opinion,” Hinnfors says.
“There is much evidence that it will be difficult for L to get enough votes to reach 4 percent.”
Wasted vote?
The problem for L is that voters may feel their vote is wasted if the party does not rise in public opinion, which is currently around 2.5 percent, according to Hinnfors. And Moderate voters may instead prioritize ensuring that the Moderates grow relative to the Sweden Democrats.
Another result of the Statistics Sweden survey is that the opposition maintains its large lead over the Tidö parties. A lot can happen, but it looks tough.
“It seems less likely that something will happen now that would shake things up so drastically that it would bring this back, but you should never say never. It is a very tough uphill battle,” Jonas Hinnfors says.
The Tidö parties like to highlight their unity as a strong card, but Hinnfors is doubtful whether voters care that much about whether the parties are united ahead of the election.
Some hope
The Statistics Sweden survey also indicates that around one in five voters have not yet made up their minds. Here too, Hinnfors is doubtful whether this can change the playing field that much. Research shows that undecided voters ultimately choose the party they have leaned towards for a longer time, and that there are no major shifts between the blocs in that group.
“So I think there is a pious hope that the undecided will lead to the gap closing in a drastic way,” he says.
In the near future, the political science professor will keep a close eye on how the Tidö parties act in this pressured situation: Will each now try to save itself and focus on its own party profiling? Or will their cooperation be trimmed?
