Additional oil and gas revenues at the end of May for the first time since the beginning of the crisis in the Middle East significantly replenished the federal budget – their amount amounted to 175 billion rubles. after a modest 21 billion rubles. in April (in the previous months of 2026 there were none at all). The total amount of tax revenues from the sale of oil and gas in May was 679 billion rubles. — compared to the same month in 2025, increased by a third. The growth of additional income led to an increase in the volume of their conversion into currency to replenish the National Welfare Fund according to the budget rule for the coming month, causing at the moment a speculative weakening of the ruble on the Moscow Exchange to 11 rubles. per yuan.
Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in May amounted to 679 billion rubles. and decreased relative to April (RUB 856 billion) by 26%, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance on June 3. But this decrease is calendar in nature – in May there was no revenue from the large additional income tax, AIT, which oil workers pay only four times a year. Taking into account this calendar factor, oil and gas budget revenues increased compared to April – by 83 billion rubles.
In a more correct annual comparison—by May 2025—collections immediately increased by a third (by 32.5%, from RUB 513 billion). The obvious reason for the May increase in revenues is the price of Urals, which increased in April (taxes are paid with a monthly lag) to $95 per barrel (according to monitoring data from the Ministry of Economy).
As a result, in May the amount of additional oil and gas revenues (the difference between the collected 679 billion and the base level of 504 billion rubles determined for this month) amounted to 175 billion rubles. This increase can be considered the first more or less significant amount of additional income since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February. In April, there were also such revenues, but in a more modest budget-scale amount of 21 billion rubles. Further, in June, the Ministry of Finance, according to its preliminary estimate, expects excess income in the amount of 220 billion rubles.
However, due to the low price of Urals in the first quarter, in general over the five months of this year, the decline in oil and gas budget revenues by the same period in 2025 remains.
In January-May, 2.98 trillion rubles were collected, 30% less than a year earlier.
Since, according to analysts, due to the extensive destruction of the oil infrastructure in the Middle East, the favorable conditions for Russia on the commodity markets will continue for quite a long time even after the end of the hot phase of the conflict, the backlog of fees in annual terms will further decrease. This may allow the Ministry of Finance to fulfill the annual budget plan for oil and gas revenues – 8.9 trillion rubles. When setting up the 2026 budget, the price of Russian oil was set at $59 per barrel. So far, the current price of Urals based on the results of four months (based on monthly data from the Ministry of Economy) is above this level – $64.4 per barrel.
Taking into account expectations of additional revenues in June, the Ministry of Finance on June 3 also announced the amount of currency purchases for the National Welfare Fund under the fiscal rule. Due to the fall in oil prices at the beginning of the year for two months (March and April), its operation in this part was suspended. In May, purchases resumed, but their volume (taking into account previously failed sales) turned out to be small – only 5.8 billion per day. Then, taking into account the sales of the Central Bank, which, according to its own plan for the half-year, on the contrary, sells currency as part of operations outside the budget rule, the net purchases of the regulators amounted to only 1.2 billion rubles. per day.
Now, as the Ministry of Finance reported, in the period from June 5 to July 6, the volume of its purchases of yuan will be equal to 9.9 billion rubles. per day (5.3 billion including counter sales from the Central Bank). This increase in demand for currency from regulators caused a speculative weakening of the ruble in the foreign exchange market. At the moment, the yuan surpassed the psychological mark of 11 rubles during the main session of the Moscow Exchange. Most analysts agree that, given the growth of exports and weak demand for currency from importers and the population, the ruble will remain strong for now.
